Highlights
• Moderate rainfall is predicted for the
Eastern, Southern, Sabaragamuwa, and Western provinces and less rainfall is
expected for rest of the country during the 23rd - 29th March.
• During
the last week, average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 7.0 mm and hydro
catchment areas received 10.0 mm.
• From 14th - 20th Mar, up to 2 m/s of Easterly winds were experienced at 850 mb level over the island. During 24th - 30th March, up to 2m/s of North Easterly winds are expected for
the country.
• Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was
below normal for northern half of the
island. Land surface temperature remained near
normal.
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models:
From 23rd March – 29th March:
Total rainfall by Provinces:
- 35 mm - Eastern, Southern, Western, Sabaragamuwa
- 25 mm - North Central, Central, Uva
- 15 mm - North Western
- ≤ 5 mm - Northern
From 30th March – 5th April:
Total rainfall by Provinces:
- 65 mm - Southern
- 55 mm - Western, Eastern, Sabaragamuwa
- 45 mm - Uva
- 35 mm - North Western, North Central, Central
- 15 mm - Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall moderately enhance the rainfall during
23rd March – 1st April, and near neutral the rainfall
during 2nd April – 6th April for Sri Lanka.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: March 20, 2023
Equatorial
sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near average across most of the Pacific
Ocean mid - March. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is still consistent with a weak
La Niña signal. A large majority of the models indicate
ENSO-neutral
conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and
early summer 2023.
Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was below - 0.5℃ to the northern half of the country in 1st February, 2023. Across the Indian Ocean, a classical negative Indian Ocean Dipole prevails as is typical during a La Niña.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall:
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (15th March – 22nd March) = 7.0 mm
Maximum
Daily Rainfall: 116.6 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Region | Average rainfall for the Last 8 days |
Northern Plains | 5.6 mm |
Eastern | 8.0 mm |
Western | 8.3 mm |
Southern Plains | 3.9 mm |
The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 10.0
mm of average rainfall for the last week
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 82.0 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Wind:
Easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island
last week.
Temperature:
The temperature anomalies
were near normal for the whole country driven
by the warm SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (23rd March – 29th March), moderate rainfall (35 mm) is predicted for
the Eastern, Southern, Western, and Sabaragamuwa provinces and less rainfall
is expected for rest of the country.
Temperature:
The temperature will remain above normal for some
parts of the Northern, North Western, North Central, Southern and Uva provinces
and below normal for some parts of the Central province during 24th March
– 30st March.
Teleconnections:
ENSO-neutral conditions are
expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer2023.
MJO shall moderately enhance the rainfall
during 23rd March – 1st April, and near neutral the
rainfall during 2nd April – 6th April for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation:
The precipitation
forecast for the April-May-June 2023 season shows a higher tendency of below-normal
precipitation for the country except Northern Province.
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