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Friday, March 24, 2023

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka ( 24 March 2023)

   

Highlights          


 • Moderate rainfall is predicted for the Eastern, Southern, Sabaragamuwa, and Western provinces and less rainfall is expected for rest of the country during the 23rd - 29th March.
 • During the last week, average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 7.0 mm and  hydro catchment areas received 10.0 mm.
 • From 14th - 20th Mar, up to 2 m/s of  Easterly winds were experienced at 850 mb level over the island. During 24th - 30th March, up to 2m/s of North Easterly winds are expected for the country.
 • Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was below normal  for northern half of the island. Land surface temperature remained near normal. 



Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 23rd March – 29th March:
Total rainfall by Provinces:    
  • 35 mm - Eastern, Southern, Western, Sabaragamuwa
  • 25 mm - North Central, Central, Uva
  • 15 mm - North Western
  • ≤ 5 mm - Northern
From 30th March – 5th April:
Total rainfall by Provinces:   
  • 65 mm - Southern
  • 55 mm - Western, Eastern, Sabaragamuwa
  • 45 mm - Uva
  • 35 mm - North Western, North Central, Central
  • 15 mm - Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall moderately enhance the rainfall during 23rd March – 1st April, and near neutral the rainfall during 2nd April – 6th April for Sri Lanka.


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: March 20, 2023 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near average across most of the Pacific Ocean mid - March. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is still consistent with a weak La Niña signal. A large majority of the models indicate ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer 2023.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was below - 0.5℃ to the northern half of the country in 1st February, 2023. Across the Indian Ocean, a classical negative Indian Ocean Dipole prevails as is typical during a La Niña.

 

Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall: 

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (15th March – 22nd March) = 7.0 mm

Maximum Daily Rainfall: 116.6 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm. 


Region

Average rainfall for the Last 8 days

Northern Plains

5.6 mm

Eastern

8.0 mm

Western

8.3 mm

Southern Plains

3.9 mm


The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 10.0 mm of average rainfall for the last week

Maximum Daily Rainfall: 82.0 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.

Wind:
Easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were near normal for the whole country driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (23rd March – 29th March), moderate rainfall (35 mm) is predicted for the Eastern, Southern, Western, and Sabaragamuwa provinces and less rainfall is expected for rest of the country.
Temperature:
The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the Northern, North Western, North Central, Southern and Uva provinces and below normal for some parts of the Central province during 24th March – 30st March.
Teleconnections:
ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer2023.
MJO shall moderately enhance the rainfall during 23rd March – 1st April, and near neutral the rainfall during 2nd April – 6th April for Sri Lanka.

Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the April-May-June 2023 season shows a higher tendency of below-normal precipitation for the country except Northern Province.

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