Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka ( 10 March 2023)

 

Highlights          

 • Fairly heavy rainfall (55 mm) is predicted for the Southern province, and less rainfall is expected for rest of the country during the 11th March – 15th March.

 • During the last week, average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 2.4 mm and  hydro catchment areas received 3.6 mm. Highest average rainfall 3.6 mm/day was received to Eastern plains.

 • From 28th Feb - 6th Mar, up to 8 m/s of  north easterly winds were experienced at 850 mb level over the island. During 11th - 17th March easterly winds are expected for the country.

 • Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was below normal  for northern half of the island. Land surface temperature remained near normal. 

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 9^th March – 15^th March:

Total rainfall by Provinces:    

• 55 mm - Southern
• 45 mm - Eastern, Sabaragamuwa
• 35 mm - Central, Uva, Western
• 25 mm - North Central, North Western
• ≤15 mm - Northern

From 16^th March – 22^nd March:

Total rainfall by Provinces:   

• 45 mm - Southern, Eastern, Sabaragamuwa
• 35 mm - Western, Central, North Central, Uva
• 25 mm - North Western
• ≤15 mm - Northern 

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall moderately suppress the rainfall during 9^th March – 13^th March, moderately enhance the rainfall during 14^th March – 18^th March, and significantly enhance the rainfall during 19^th March – 23^rd March for Sri Lanka. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: March 6, 2023 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean early - March. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate ENSO-neutral conditions will begin within the next couple of months, and persist through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was below - 0.5℃ to the northern half of the country in 1^st February, 2023. Across the Indian Ocean, a classical negative Indian Ocean Dipole prevails as is typical during a La Niña.

 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been moderately rainfall over the following area:   

Batticaloa

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (2^nd March – 8^th March) = 2.4 mm

R max: 38.4 mm & R min: 0.0 mm.

Region	Average rainfall for the Last 8 days
Northern Plains	0.7 mm
Eastern	3.6 mm
Western	3.1 mm
Southern Plains	1.8 mm

The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 3.6 mm of average rainfall for the last week

R max: 32.0 mm & R min: 0.0 mm.

Wind:

North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were below normal for the Uva province and some parts of the Northern, Central, Eastern, North Central and Southern Provinces driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (11^th March – 15^th March), fairly heavy rainfall (55 mm) is predicted for the Southern province, and less rainfall is expected for rest of the country.

Temperature:

The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the Sabaragamuwa, North Western, and Southern provinces and below normal for some parts of the Central province during 11^th March – 19^th March.

Teleconnections:

ENSO-neutral conditions will begin within the next couple of months, and persist through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer.

MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 9^th March – 13^th March, moderately enhance the rainfall during 14^th March – 18^th March, and significantly enhance the rainfall during 19^th March – 23^rd March for Sri Lanka.

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the March-April-May in 2023 season shows a higher tendency of above-normal precipitation for southern half of the country.