Highlights
• Fairly heavy rainfall (55 mm) is predicted
for the Southern province, and less rainfall is expected for rest of the
country during the 11th March – 15th March.
• During
the last week, average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 2.4 mm and hydro
catchment areas received 3.6 mm. Highest
average rainfall 3.6 mm/day was received to Eastern plains.
• From 28th Feb - 6th Mar, up to 8 m/s of north easterly winds were experienced at 850 mb level over the island. During 11th - 17th March easterly winds are expected for the country.
• Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was
below normal for northern half of the
island. Land surface temperature remained near
normal.
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models:
From 9th March – 15th March:
Total rainfall by Provinces:
- 55 mm - Southern
- 45 mm - Eastern, Sabaragamuwa
- 35 mm - Central, Uva, Western
- 25 mm - North Central, North Western
- ≤15 mm - Northern
From 16th March – 22nd March:
Total rainfall by Provinces:
- 45 mm - Southern, Eastern, Sabaragamuwa
- 35 mm - Western, Central, North Central, Uva
- 25 mm - North Western
- ≤15 mm - Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall moderately suppress
the rainfall during 9th March – 13th March, moderately enhance
the rainfall during 14th March – 18th March, and
significantly enhance the rainfall during 19th March – 23rd
March for Sri Lanka.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: March 6, 2023
Equatorial
sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific
Ocean early - March. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A
large majority of the models indicate ENSO-neutral conditions will begin
within the next couple of months, and persist through the Northern Hemisphere
spring and early summer.
Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was below - 0.5℃ to the northern half of the country in 1st February, 2023. Across the Indian Ocean, a classical negative Indian Ocean Dipole prevails as is typical during a La Niña.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall:
During
the last two weeks, there had been moderately rainfall over the
following area:
Batticaloa
Daily
Average Rainfall in the Met stations for
previous week of (2nd March – 8th March) = 2.4 mm
R
max: 38.4 mm & R min: 0.0 mm.
Region | Average rainfall for the Last 8 days |
Northern Plains | 0.7 mm |
Eastern | 3.6 mm |
Western | 3.1 mm |
Southern Plains | 1.8 mm |
The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 3.6
mm of average rainfall for the last week
R max: 32.0 mm & R min: 0.0 mm.
Wind:
North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area
and around the island last week.
Temperature:
The temperature anomalies
were below normal for the Uva province and some parts of the Northern, Central,
Eastern, North Central and Southern Provinces driven by the warm SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (11th March – 15th
March),
fairly heavy rainfall (55 mm) is predicted for the Southern province, and less rainfall
is expected for rest of the
country.
Temperature:
The temperature will remain above normal for
some parts of the Sabaragamuwa, North Western, and Southern provinces and below
normal for some parts of the Central province during 11th March – 19th
March.
Teleconnections:
ENSO-neutral conditions
will begin within the next couple of months, and persist through the Northern
Hemisphere spring and early summer.
MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall
during 9th March – 13th March, moderately enhance the
rainfall during 14th March – 18th March, and
significantly enhance the rainfall during 19th March – 23rd
March for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation:
The precipitation
forecast for the March-April-May in 2023 season shows a higher tendency of above-normal
precipitation for southern half of the country.
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