Highlights
• Fairly heavy (≥ 55 mm) rainfall is predicted
for the Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Northern, Western, and Central provinces during
16th - 22nd November.
• During the last week, the average daily
rainfall over Sri Lanka was 14.4 mm & hydro catchment areas received 9.4 mm
on average and the highest average rainfall (17 mm) was
received to the Eastern and Southern plains of the country.
• From 7th - 13th Nov, up to 6m/s of north-easterly winds were experienced at 850 mb level over the
island. During 17th - 23rd Nov, north - westerly winds
are expected to the country .
• Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was
above normal to the Southern half of the country. Land surface temperature remained near normal.
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models:
From 16th November– 22nd November:
Total rainfall by Provinces:
- 85 mm - Southern, Sabaragamuwa
- 75 mm - Northern, Western
- 55 mm - Central
- 25 mm - Eastern, Uva
- < 25 mm - North Western, North Central
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall moderately suppress the rainfall during
16th– 25th November and slightly suppress the rainfall
during 26th – 30th November for Sri Lanka.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: November 14, 2022
Equatorial sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean mid - November.
The tropical
Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña is favored to continue
through during the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) 2022-23, with
a transition to ENSO-neutral favored in February-April 2023 (57% chance).
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall:
During
the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the
following areas: Kegalle,
Jaffna, and Avissawella
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (8th November – 15th November) = 14.4 mm
Rmax: 133.9 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.
Region | Average rainfall for the Last 8 days |
Northern Plains | 14.8 mm |
Eastern | 17.3 mm |
Western | 12.5 mm |
Southern Plains | 17.9 mm |
The Hydro Catchment
Areas recorded 9.4 mm of average rainfall for the last week
Rmax: 92.9 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.
Wind:
North-easterly winds prevailed in the sea area
and around the island last week.
Temperature:
The temperature anomalies
were below normal for the North Central province and some parts of the North
Eastern, Eastern and Central provinces, driven
by the warm SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (16th – 22nd
November),
fairly heavy (≥ 55 mm) rainfall is predicted for the Southern,
Sabaragamuwa, Northern, Western, and Central provinces; and less rainfall is expected for the rest of the country.
Temperature:
The temperature will remain below normal for some
parts of the Central and Uva provinces during 17th – 23rd
November.
Teleconnections:
La Niña is favored to
continue through during the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February)
2022-23, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored in February-April 2023 (57%
chance).
MJO shall moderately
suppress the rainfall during 16th– 25th November and
slightly suppress the rainfall during 26th – 30th
November for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation:
The precipitation
forecast for the December-January-February 2023 season shows a higher tendency
for above-normal precipitation in the north half of the country.
No comments:
Post a Comment