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Friday, November 11, 2022

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (11 November 2022)

    

Highlights          


 • Heavy rainfall (≥135mm) is predicted for the Sabaragamuwa, Western, Northern, and Southern provinces during 9th - 15th Nov. During 10th - 22nd Nov heavy rainfall is predicted for Southern and Sabaragamuwa provinces.
 • During the last week, the average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 16.8 mm & hydro catchment areas received 15.3 mm on average.
 • From 31st Oct  -6th Nov, up to 5m/s of north-westerly and north-easterly winds were experienced at 850 mb level over the island. During 10th - 16th Nov, westerly winds are expected to the country .
 • Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was above normal to the whole country in late - October. Land surface temperature remained near normal.



Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 9th November– 15th November:
Total rainfall by Provinces:   
  • > 135 mm - Western, Southern, Northern, Sabaragamuwa
  •    135 mm - Eastern, Central
  •    125 mm - North Western, North Central, Uva
From 16th November– 22nd November:
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • > 135 mm - Southern
  •   135 mm - Sabaragamuwa
  •   115 mm - Western
  •    85 mm - Northern, Central, Uva
  •    65 mm - Eastern, North Western
  •    55 mm - North Central
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall near neutral the rainfall during 9th– 23rd November for Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: November 7, 2022 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean early - November. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña is favored to continue through during the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) 2022-23, with a 54% chance for ENSO-neutral in February-April 2023.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was above 0.5℃ to the whole country in 26th October, 2022. Across the Indian Ocean, a classical negative Indian Ocean Dipole prevails as is typical during a La Niña.

 

Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall: 
During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following areas: Kegalle, Mullaitivu, Galle and Rathnapura
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (1st November – 8th November) =
16.8 mm
Rmax: 116.0 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.

Region

Average rainfall for the Last 8 days

Northern Plains

15.5 mm

Eastern

20.0 mm

Western

14.6 mm

Southern Plains

19.8 mm


The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 15.3 mm of average rainfall for the last week
Rmax: 74.5 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm. 

Wind:
North-westerly and North-easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were below normal for some parts of the Northern province, and above normal for some parts of the Southern province, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (9th – 15th November), above 135 mm rainfall is predicted for the Western, Northern, Southern and Sabaragamuwa provinces; and heavy (≥ 125 mm) rainfall is expected for the rest of the country.
Temperature:
The temperature will remain below normal for some parts of the Central and Uva provinces during 10th – 16th November.
Teleconnections:
La Niña is favored to continue through during the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) 2022-23, with a 54% chance for ENSO-neutral in February-April 2023.
MJO shall near neutral the rainfall during 9th– 23rd November for Sri Lanka.

Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the November-December-January 2023 season shows a higher tendency for above-normal precipitation in the north half of the country.

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