Highlights
· The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 100 mm of total rainfall in central regions during 16 – 21 Oct.
· Between 9 – 14 Oct: up to 140 mm of daily rainfalls were recorded in Ratnapura and Kurunegala districts on the 11th and 13th respectively.
· From 8 – 14 Oct: up to 5 km/h, easterly winds were experienced by the entire island
· The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 100 mm of total rainfall in central regions during 16 – 21 Oct.
· Between 9 – 14 Oct: up to 140 mm of daily rainfalls were recorded in Ratnapura and Kurunegala districts on the 11th and 13th respectively.
· From 8 – 14 Oct: up to 5 km/h, easterly winds were experienced by the entire island
Monitoring
Rainfall
Weekly Monitoring:
Date
Rainfall
9th
October
Up to 70 mm in Mannar and Vavuniya districts; up to 60 mm in
Mullaitivu and Kurunegala districts; up to 50 mm in Anuradhapura, Matale and
Badulla districts; up to 30 mm in Trincomalee, Kandy, and Monaragala
districts; and up to 20 mm in Kilinochchi, Puttalam, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya,
Ratnapura and Ampara districts.
10th October
Up to 30 mm
in Polonnaruwa district; and up to 20 mm in Anuradhapura and Matale districts.
11th October
Up to 140 mm in Ratnapura district; up to 60 mm in Nuwara Eliya and
Badulla districts; up to 50 mm in Kilinochchi, Kegalle, Colombo, Kalutara and
Monaragala districts; up to 30 mm in Jaffna, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Puttalam,
Gampaha and Galle districts; and up to 20 mm in Anuradhapura, Kurunegala and
Matara districts.
12th October
Up to 50 mm
in Badulla district; up to 30 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Monaragala
districts; and up to 20 mm in Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Kegalle, Gampaha,
Colombo and Kalutara districts.
13th
October
Up to 140 mm in Kurunegala district; up to 70 mm in Kandy district;
up to 60 mm in Puttalam district; up to 50 mm in Anuradhapura, Matale,
Monaragala, Badulla, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo and Kalutara
districts; up to 30 mm in Trincomalee, district; and up to 20 mm Mannar, Polonnaruwa, Ampara,
Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts.
14th
October
Up to 30 mm
in Ratnapura, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 20 mm in Kalutara,
Galle, Monaragala and Ampara districts.
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 100-150 mm in Kurunegala,
Anuradhapura, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to
75-100 mm in Vavuniya, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Kegalle and
Kandy districts; up to 50-75 mm in Kilinochchi, Matale, Matara, and Hambantota
districts; and 25-50 mm in most parts of the island. Above-average rainfall up
to 50-100 mm is shown for Kurunegala, Vavuniya, Colombo, Ratnapura, Nuwara
Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and western regions of Anuradhapura district; up to
25-50 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Kandy districts; and up to 10-25 mm
in Kilinochchi and Mannar districts. Below-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is
shown for Polonnaruwa district; and up to 25-50 mm in Trincomalee, Batticaloa,
Ampara and eastern regions of Anuradhapura district
Monthly Monitoring: During September – Above average rainfall conditions
up to 450 mm were experienced by Gampaha district; up to 360 mm in Puttalam,
Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Monaragala and Ratnapura
districts; up to 240 mm in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya,
Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Badulla, Ampara, Kandy and
Nuwara Eliya districts; and up to 120 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified
Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 750 mm of total rainfall in Gampaha,
Colombo, Kalutara, and Galle districts; up to 500 mm in Kurunegala, Puttalam,
Kegalle, Ratnapura, Matara, Hambantota and Monaragala districts; up to 300 mm
in Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts; and up to 200 mm in Kandy, Matale,
Ampara and Batticaloa districts.
Weekly Monitoring:
Date
|
Rainfall
|
9th
October
|
Up to 70 mm in Mannar and Vavuniya districts; up to 60 mm in
Mullaitivu and Kurunegala districts; up to 50 mm in Anuradhapura, Matale and
Badulla districts; up to 30 mm in Trincomalee, Kandy, and Monaragala
districts; and up to 20 mm in Kilinochchi, Puttalam, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya,
Ratnapura and Ampara districts.
|
10th October
|
Up to 30 mm
in Polonnaruwa district; and up to 20 mm in Anuradhapura and Matale districts.
|
11th October
|
Up to 140 mm in Ratnapura district; up to 60 mm in Nuwara Eliya and
Badulla districts; up to 50 mm in Kilinochchi, Kegalle, Colombo, Kalutara and
Monaragala districts; up to 30 mm in Jaffna, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Puttalam,
Gampaha and Galle districts; and up to 20 mm in Anuradhapura, Kurunegala and
Matara districts.
|
12th October
|
Up to 50 mm
in Badulla district; up to 30 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Monaragala
districts; and up to 20 mm in Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Kegalle, Gampaha,
Colombo and Kalutara districts.
|
13th
October
|
Up to 140 mm in Kurunegala district; up to 70 mm in Kandy district;
up to 60 mm in Puttalam district; up to 50 mm in Anuradhapura, Matale,
Monaragala, Badulla, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo and Kalutara
districts; up to 30 mm in Trincomalee, district; and up to 20 mm Mannar, Polonnaruwa, Ampara,
Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts.
|
14th
October
|
Up to 30 mm
in Ratnapura, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 20 mm in Kalutara,
Galle, Monaragala and Ampara districts.
|
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models:
- From 16th – 22nd Oct: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Puttalam,
Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, and Ratnapura districts; up to 115-25 mm
in Galle and Matara districts; up to 95-105 mm in Mannar, Anuradhapura, Matale,
Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts; and up to 85-95 mm in most parts of the
island.
- From 23rd
– 29th Oct: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha and
Ratnapura districts; up to 115-125 mm in Jaffna, Mannar, Galle, and Matara
districts; up to 105-115 mm in Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Matale,
Kandy and Hambantota districts; and up to 85-95 mm most parts of the island.
IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
16th of Oct: Not Available
17th of Oct: Not Available
17th of Oct: Not Available
From 16th
– 21st Oct: Total rainfall up to 150 mm is expected in Polonnaruwa,
Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to 100
mm in Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Kuruegala, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura
and Batticaloa districts; and up to 75 mm in rest of the island.
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: October 10, 2019
SSTs
in the east-central Pacific maintained ENSO-neutral levels during September and
early October, despite some warming in October. Patterns in most of the key
atmospheric variables are also showing ENSO-neutral conditions. Model forecasts
generally favor ENSO-neutral through autumn, winter and into spring, with
slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook
is consistent with these model forecasts.
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