Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 10 October 2019)

                                                      Highlights                                

·  The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 200 mm of total rainfall in Badulla district during 9 – 14 Oct.

·  Between 1 - 8 Oct: up to 120 mm of rainfalls were recorded in Anuradhapura district on the 6^th.

·  From 1 – 7 Oct: up to 10 km/h, southeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.

·  0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring: On October 1^st Puttalam, Anuradhapura and Kurunegala districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall; Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Badulla, and Monaragala districts up to 10 mm.  On the 2^nd, Kalutara district received up to 20 mm of rainfall; and Ratnapura, Galle, and Batticaloa districts up to 10 mm. On the 3^rd, Kegalle and Colombo districts received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts up to 30 mm; and Mannar, Puttalam, Galle, Matara, Badulla, Monaragala, and Matale districts up to 10 mm. On the 4^th, Matale, Kandy, Ratnapura, Colombo and Monaragala districts received up to 50 mm; Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Matara and Hambantota districts up to 30 mm; and Mannar, Polonnaruwa, Gampaha and Galle districts up to 20 mm. On the 5^th Kurunegala district received up to 70 mm; Kegalle and Badulla districts up to 50 mm; Ratnapura, Kandy, Monaragala and Nuwara Eliya districts up to 30 mm; and Matale, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, and Kalutara districts up to 20 mm. On the 6^th, Anuradhapura district received up to 120 mm of rainfall; Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar and Kurunegala districts up to 70 mm;  Puttalam, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Polonnaruwa, and Ampara districts up to 50 mm; Kilinochchi, Trincomalee, Matale, Kandy, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Monaragala districts up to 30 mm; and the rest of the island up to 20 mm. On the 7^th, Matale, and Polonnaruwa districts received up to 70 mm of rainfall; Ratnapura, Matara, and Galle districts up to 60 mm;  Gampaha, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, Kalutara, Monaragala, Ampara and Hambantota districts up to 50 mm; Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy and Badulla districts up to 30 mm; and Anuradhapura and Batticaloa districts up to 20 mm. On the 8^th, Mullaitivu and Vavuniya districts received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Mannar and Anuradhapura districts up to 30 mm; and Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Kandy, and Nuwara Eliya districts up to 20 mm.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 100-150 mm in Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Colombo, Kalutara, Polonnaruwa and Matale districts; up to 75-100 Puttalam, Vavuniya, Galle, Matara, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy and Badulla districts; and up to 50-75 mm Mannar, Monaragala and Hambantota districts. Above-average rainfall up to 100-200 mm is shown for in Anuradhapura, Matale and Ratnapura districts; up to 50-100 mm Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Colombo, Kalutara, Matara, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya and Kandy districts; and up to 25-50 mm in most parts of the island.

Monthly Monitoring: During August –Above average rainfall conditions up to 450 mm were experienced by Gampaha district; up to 360 mm in Puttalam, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Monaragala and Ratnapura districts; up to 240 mm in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Badulla, Ampara, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts; and up to 120 mm in the rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 750 mm of total rainfall in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts; up to 500 mm in Kurunegala, Puttalam, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Matara, Hambantota and Monaragala districts; up to 300 mm in Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts; and up to 200 mm in Kandy, Matale, Ampara and Batticaloa districts.

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 9^th – 15^th Oct: Total rainfall up to 125 mm in Gampaha district; up to 105-115 mm in Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, and Galle districts; and up to 85-95 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle and Matara districts.

From 16^th – 22^nd Oct: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts; up to 105-115 mm Hambantota district; and up to 85-95 mm in Mannar, Matale, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts.

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:

9^th    of  Oct: Not Available

10^th  of  Oct: Not Available 

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 9^th – 14^th Sep: Total rainfall up to 200 mm is expected in Badulla district; up to 150 mm in Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Monaragala, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy and Matale districts; and up to 100 mm in Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Batticaloa, Kegalle and Kurunegala districts.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall not have an impact on the rainfall of Sri Lanka in the next 5 days and shall enhance in the following 10 days. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: October 10, 2019

SSTs in the east-central Pacific maintained ENSO-neutral levels during September and early October, despite some warming in October. Patterns in most of the key atmospheric variables are also showing ENSO-neutral conditions. Model forecasts generally favor ENSO-neutral through autumn, winter and into spring, with slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.