Highlights
· The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall
in Jaffna district during 24 – 29 Jul.
· Between 17 – 22 Jul: up to 90 mm of rainfall was recorded in Nuwara Eliya
district on the 18th.
· From 16 – 22 Jul: up to 54 km/h, northwesterly winds were experienced by
the entire island.
Monitoring
Rainfall
Weekly Monitoring:
On July 17th, Ratnapura district received up to 60 mm of rainfall; Nuwara
Eliya, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Kegalle,
Gampaha, Colombo, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts up to 20
mm. On the 18th, Nuwara Eliya district received up to 90 mm of
rainfall; Kandy and Badulla districts up to 60 mm; Kegalle, Ratnapura,
Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Monaragala districts up to 50 mm; Colombo, Matale,
Trincomalee, Ampara and Hambantota districts up to 30 mm; and Kurunegala and
Gampaha districts up to 20 mm. On the 19th,
Jaffna district received up to 5 mm of rainfall. On the 20th, Jaffna,
Kilinochchi, Kandy, Colombo, Badulla, Ratnapura and Nuwara Eliya districts
received up to 5 mm of rainfall. On the 21st, Nuwara Eliya district
received up to 40 mm of rainfall; Ratnapura, Monaragala and Badulla districts
up to 20 mm; and most parts of the country up to 10 mm. On the 22nd,
Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts received up to 10 mm of rainfall; and Ratnapura district up to 5 mm.
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 75-100 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Galle districts;
up to 50-75 mm in Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Kalutara, Badulla, Galle and
Matara districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa,
Batticaloa and Trincomalee. Above average rainfall up
to 50-100 mm is shown for Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Galle districts;
and up to 25-50 mm in Kandy, Kegalle, Ampara, Monaragala and Matara districts
Monthly Monitoring: During June – Above average rainfall conditions
up to 60 mm were experienced by Puttalam, Kurunegala. Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle
and southern parts of the Ratnapura district. Below average rainfall conditions
up to 150 mm were experienced by Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts; and up to 90
mm in Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa,
Matale, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Hambantoa, Kegalle and Colombo districts. The
CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 200 mm of total rainfall in
Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 150
mm in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts; up to 100 mm in Badulla
and Ampara districts; and up to 75 mm in Batticaloa, Hambantota, Monaragala,
Matale and Kandy districts.
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models:
From 24th
– 30th Jul: Total rainfall up to 25 mm on Jaffna, Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu
districts; and up to 15-5 mm in most parts of the island.
IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
26th
Jul: Not Available
27th
Jul: Not Available
From 24th – 29th Jul: Total
rainfall up to 75 mm is expected in Jaffna district; and up to 25 mm in rest of
the island.
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: MJO shall not have an impact on the rainfall in Sri Lanka.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: July 19, 2019
SSTs in the east-central Pacific declined to
ENSO-neutral levels during early July, but still above average. Temperature
anomalies of subsurface waters were near-average. Patterns in the atmosphere
showed mainly ENSO-neutral to borderline El Niño conditions. Collective model
forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through autumn, possibly returning to weak El Niño
by winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook, still with an El Niño advisory, calls
for a transition to ENSO-neutral by late summer, most likely remaining neutral
through fall and winter.
Indian Ocean State
0.5 0C above average sea surface
temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
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