Highlights
· The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 220 mm of total rainfall
in southwestern regions of the island during 17 – 22 Jul.
· Between 10 – 16 Jul: up to 50 mm of rainfall was recorded in Ampara and Polonnaruwa
districts on the 14th.
· From 9 – 15 Jul: up to 36 km/h, northwesterly winds were experienced by
the entire island.
· The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 220 mm of total rainfall
in southwestern regions of the island during 17 – 22 Jul.
· Between 10 – 16 Jul: up to 50 mm of rainfall was recorded in Ampara and Polonnaruwa
districts on the 14th.
· From 9 – 15 Jul: up to 36 km/h, northwesterly winds were experienced by
the entire island.
Monitoring
Rainfall
Weekly Monitoring:
On July 10th, Monaragala district received up to 40 mm of rainfall; Kurunegala,
Batticaloa and Ampara districts up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Puttalam, Gampaha,
Badulla and Hambantota districts up to 20 mm. On the 11th, Vavuniya
district received up to 20 mm of rainfall. On the 12th, Polonnaruwa, Matale,
Ampara, Kandy and Badulla districts received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and
Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya,
Ratnapura, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts up to 20 mm. On the 13th,
Ratnapura and Nuwara Eliya districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall. On the 14th,
Ampara and Polonnaruwa districts received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Puttalam and
Badulla districts up to 30 mm; and Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura,
Kalutara, Matale and Monaragala districts. No significant rainfalls were
recorded in any part of the island on the 15th. On the 16th,
Kalutara and Ratnapura districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall.
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 50-75 mm in Ampara Badulla and Monaragala districts; 25-50 mm in Puttalam,
Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo
and Kalutara districts; and up to 25 mm in most parts of the island. Above average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is
shown for Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Puttalam,
Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy and Ampara districts. Below average rainfall up to 10-25
mm is shown for Vavuniya, Mannar, Trincomalee and Galle districts..
Monthly Monitoring: During June – Above average rainfall conditions
up to 60 mm were experienced by Puttalam, Kurunegala. Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle
and southern parts of the Ratnapura district. Below average rainfall conditions
up to 150 mm were experienced by Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts; and up to 90
mm in Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa,
Matale, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Hambantoa, Kegalle and Colombo districts. The
CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 200 mm of total rainfall in
Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 150
mm in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts; up to 100 mm in Badulla
and Ampara districts; and up to 75 mm in Batticaloa, Hambantota, Monaragala,
Matale and Kandy districts.
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models:
From 17th
– 23rd Jul: Total rainfall up to 135 mm Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura,
Galle and Matara districts; up to 115-125 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha
and Hambantota districts; 105-115 mm in Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to
95-105 mm in Kandy, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 85-95 mm in Matale
and Ampara districts; up to 75-85 mm in Mannar and Anuradhapura districts; and
up to 65-75 mm in most parts of the island.
From 24th – 30th Jul: Total rainfall up
to 55 mm in Jaffna districts; up to 35-45 mm Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu districts;
up to 25-35 mm in Mannar, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura and Trincomalee districts; and
up to 15 mm in rest of the island.
IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
19th
Jul: Not Available
20th
Jul: Not Available
From 17th
– 22nd Jul: Total rainfall up to 220 mm is expected in Gampaha,
Kegalle, Colombo, Ratnapura, Kalutara and Galle districts; up to 200 mm in Puttalam,
Kurunegala and Matara districts; up to 150 mm in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and
Hambantota districts; up to 100 mm in Matale district; up to 75 mm in Badulla,
Mullaitivu and Trincomalee districts; and up to 50 mm in rest of the island.
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: July 11, 2019
SSTs in the central Pacific maintained at a
weak El Niño level during June and early July, while temperature anomalies of
subsurface waters cooled to near-average. Some patterns in the atmosphere
continue to show El Niño conditions intermittently. Collective model forecasts
show a likely transition from weak El Niño conditions to ENSO-neutral by late
summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook, still with an El Niño advisory, calls for
a 60% chance of ENSO-neutral by Jul-Sep, and neutral remains the most likely
category through fall and winter.
Indian Ocean State
1 0C above average sea surface
temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
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