Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 24, March 2016

Highlights:


Dry weather conditions continued in the entire country during the week 16th – 22nd March where only central region of the country received rainfall on 16th March. Highest rainfall of 60 mm was observed around Aranayake while southern region of Kandy and north western region of Nuwara Eliya received rainfall up to 40 mm on this day. NOAA NCEP model predict slight amounts of rainfall in western, central, eastern and southern regions of the country during next week and the dry weather conditions are expected to be continued. MJO is in phase 5 and shall not have a significant impact on the rainfall in Sri Lanka.
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Summary

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring:Rainfall received only in central region of the country during 16th – 22nd March while dry weather conditions were observed mostly in other districts. On 16th March, rainfall up to 60 mm was observed around Aranayake whereas southern region of Kandy and north western region of Nuwara Eliya received rainfall up to 40 mm. No rainfall was observed during 17th – 20th in the entire country while a drizzle condition received on 21st March in central and western provinces. No rainfall was observed in the entire country on 22nd March.


Monthly Monitoring:During February 2016 most regions of the country observed below average rainfall; and above average rainfall was observed in the northern region of Ratnapura, western region of Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, north region of Matara and the sea around western, south eastern and south western regions of the country.

Predictions

14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models predict up to 25 mm rainfall around western, central, eastern and southern regions of the country during 23rd – 29th March and no rainfall is expected in the entire country during 30th March - 5th April.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast:IMD WRF model forecast for 25th and 26th of March is not available due to technical problem. IRI CFS models predict up to 75 mm total precipitation in eastern sea and up to 50 mm total precipitation around eastern coastal region, Badulla, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya during 23rd – 28th March.

Seasonal Prediction:As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for April to June, the total 3 month precipitation shall be climatological. The 3 month temperature has more than 70-80% likelihood in the entire country of being in the above-normal tercile during this period.

PACIFIC SEAS STATE March 17, 2016 :During mid-March 2016 the tropical Pacific SST was weakening, but still at a strong El Niño level. All atmospheric variables continue to support the El Niño pattern, including weakened trade winds and excess rainfall in the east-central tropical Pacific, extending eastward. Most ENSO prediction models indicate continued weakening El Niño conditions over the coming several months, returning to neutral by late spring or early summer 2016, and a chance for La Niña development by fall.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE :1 degree Celsius above average sea surface temperature was observed around Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE :MJO phase is in 5 therefore shall not have a significant impact on the rainfall in Sri Lanka.