Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 17, March 2016

Highlights:


During the week 9th – 15th March, dry weather conditions continued in the entire country where only north western and western regions of the country received rainfall. Highest rainfall of 60 mm was observed on 9th March around Rambukkana and southern region of Kurunegala and on 14th march around southern region of Kegalle. On 11th March rainfall up to 50 mm was observed in Matugama. NOAA NCEP model predicts dry weather conditions for the entire country during next fortnight. MJO is in phase 4 and shall slightly enhance rainfall in Sri Lanka.
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Summary

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring:During 9th – 15th March, only north western and western regions received rainfall while dry weather conditions were observed in the entire country. On 9th March southern region of Kurunegala and Rambukkana received rainfall up to 60 mm while western region of Matale and north western region of Kandy received rainfall up to 40 mm. On 10th March no significant rainfall was observed in the entire country. Matugama received rainfall up to 50 mm on 11th March. No significant rainfall was observed in the entire country on 12th and 13th march. Southern region of Kegalle received rainfall up to 60 mm on 14th March while Ohiya received rainfall up to 20 mm on 15th March.


Monthly Monitoring:During February 2016 most regions of the country observed below average rainfall; and above average rainfall was observed in the northern region of Ratnapura, western region of Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and the sea around western, south eastern and south western regions of the country.

Predictions

14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models predict no rainfall in the entire country during 16th – 22nd March. Same dry weather conditions are expected during 23rd – 29th March to be continued in the entire country.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast:According to the IMD WRF model, rainfall up to 35 mm is expected in the western sea and Galle on 18th March. Slight amounts of rainfall is expected around the south western region of the country and rest of the country shall observe dry weather conditions on the same day. On 19th March the entire country is expected to observe dry weather conditions where only south western sea shall receive rainfall up to 35 mm. IRI CFS models predict up to 25 mm total precipitation in southern and western sea, central, western, southern and south eastern regions of the country during 16th – 21st March.

Seasonal Prediction:As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for April to June, the total 3 month precipitation shall be climatological. The 3 month temperature has more than 70-80% likelihood in the entire country of being in the above-normal tercile during this period.

PACIFIC SEAS STATE March 10, 2016 :During mid-March 2016 the tropical Pacific SST was weakening, but still at a strong El Niño level. All atmospheric variables continue to support the El Niño pattern, including weakened trade winds and excess rainfall in the east-central tropical Pacific. Most ENSO prediction models indicate continued weakening El Niño conditions over the coming several months, returning to neutral by late spring or early summer 2016, and a chance for La Niña development by fall.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE :1 degree Celsius above average sea surface temperature was observed around Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE :MJO phase is in 4 therefore shall slightly enhance rainfall in Sri Lanka.