Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 19 March, 2015

Highlights


Once again rainfall was observed during the previous week following a dry week. The entire country received rainfall during the week. NOAA NCEP and IRI models predict dry conditions in the next week.
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Summary

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring:: Light rainfall in south western region of the country was observed on 10 th and 1th of March. During 12 th -15 th up to 40 mm rainfall was observed throughout the country. Once again light rainfall was observed on the 16 th .


Monthly Monitoring: After a dry January, almost the entirety of the country received above average rainfall during February. Only places where less than average rainfall was observed are Puttalam, Kurunegala and Polonnaruwa districts. Batticaloa and Ratnapura areas received highest rainfall during this month. Decreased rainfall was observed during the first 10 days of March compared to the last 8 days of February. In March until the 10 th , rainfall was mostly observed in the western and southwestern parts of the country.

Predictions

14-day prediction: NOAA NCEP models does not predict rainfall during 18 th - 24 th March but during 25 th - 31 st March the whole country is expected to receive rainfall up to 55 mm.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: According to the IMD WRF model, no rainfall is expected on 20 th and 21 st of March. IRI models also predict low rainfall during 17 th - 22 nd March with no chance of unusually high rainfall.

Seasonal Prediction: As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for March to May, the total 3 month precipitation shall be climatological. The 3 month average temperature has more than 60- 70% likelihood of being in the above-normal tercile during this period.

PACIFIC SEAS STATE March 5, 2014 :During January through February 2015 the SST just met the thresholds for weak Niño conditions. Lately some of the atmospheric variables began indicating an El Niño pattern a little more than they had been before January. The consensus of ENSO prediction models indicate warm neutral to borderline El Niño conditions during the February-April season in progress, continuing into northern spring 2015, with some suggestion of strengthening El Niño toward mid-2015.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE :Average sea surface temperature was observed in the sea around Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE :MJO is in phase 7. Therefore rainfall in Sri Lanka shall be suppressed due to this.