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Thursday, March 12, 2015

Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 12 March, 2015


Dry condition were observed in the past few days throughout the country except in south-western region of the country. This is likely to change in the next few days as N OAA NCEP models predict high precipitation in the next week.
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Weekly Monitoring:: On the 4 th of March rainfall was observer throughout the country with up to 30 mm magnitude. This was the highest rainfall observed during the week. Thereafter until the 10 th rainfall was observed only in the south-western region of the country.

Monthly Monitoring: After a dry January, almost the entirety of the country received above average rainfall during February. Only places where less than average rainfall was observed are Puttalam, Kurunegala and Polonnaruwa districts. Batticaloa and Ratnapura areas received highest rainfall during this month. Decreased rainfall was observed during the first 10 days of March compared to the last 8 days of February. In March until the 10 th , rainfall was mostly observed in the western and southwestern parts of the country.


14-day prediction: NOAA NCEP models predict high amount of rainfall throughout the country during 11 th - 17 th March with rainfall expected to go up to 85 mm. Thereafter until the 24 th rainfall is expected to cease.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: According to the IMD WRF model, Hambantota area shall receive up to 65 mm rainfall on the 13 th of March. Entire eastern region and Ratnapura region shall also receive rainfall up to 35 mm on the same day. On the 14 th rainfall shall increase with most of the country receiving rainfall up to 65 mm. IRI models predict up to 75 mm rainfall in Colombo during 9 th - 14 th March. No heavy rainfall events are not predicted during this period.

Seasonal Prediction: As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for March to May, the total 3 month precipitation shall be climatological. The 3 month average temperature has more than 60- 70% likelihood of being in the above-normal tercile during this period.

PACIFIC SEAS STATE March 5, 2014 :During January through February 2015 the SST just met the thresholds for weak Niño conditions. Lately some of the atmospheric variables began indicating an El Niño pattern a little more than they had been before January. The consensus of ENSO prediction models indicate warm neutral to borderline El Niño conditions during the February-April season in progress, continuing into northern spring 2015, with some suggestion of strengthening El Niño toward mid-2015.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE :0.5 degrees Celcius above average sea surface temperature was observed in the sea around Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE :MJO is in phase 6. Therefore rainfall in Sri Lanka shall be suppressed due to this.

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