Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 6 March, 2014

Highlights

Monitoring and Prediction
Existing rainfall condition is likely to decrease gradually after 9th of March 2014. However, eastern slopes and coasts are likely to observe increasing pattern of rainfall, with less than 4 mm/day of rainfall. No significant rainfall events are expected. For 8th of March, patches of Galle, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts shall experience significant rainfall (less than 65 mm/day).

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Summary

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring:During the past week entire country experienced dry condition throughout, except on 28th February southern half of the island received less than 10 mm of rainfall.


Monthly Monitoring:Ratnapura district received the highest average rainfall during February 2014 (more than 5mm/day of average rainfall). However during February 2014, entire country experienced below normal rainfall and highest negative anomaly recorded at Batticaloa and Ampara district.

Predictions

14-day prediction:During 5th-11th March 2014, Southwestern regions shall receive less than 25 mm of rainfall/week and rest of the regions shall receive less than 5 mm of rainfall/week. During 12th-18th March, entire Sri Lanka shall receive rainfall below 45 mm/week.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: For 7th of March, IMD WRF model predicts less than 8 mm of rainfall for Nuwara-Eliya district and for the parts of nearby districts. For 8th of March, patches of Galle, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts shall experience less than 65 mm or rainfall. However, for the same day southern half of the island receive more rainfall compared to the Northern half of the island. IRI model predicts 25-50 mm/6 days of rainfall for Colombo-Kalutara, Ratnapura, Nuwara-Eliya, Badulla, Kandy and Kegalle districts for the coming week (5th-10th March 2014).

1 Month Prediction:Overall- Existing rainfall condition is likely to decrease gradually after 9th of March 2014. Western Slopes and Coast- The rainfall pattern persisting in the entire country shall be observed in this region, but with higher amount of daily predicted rainfall. Eastern Slopes- Rainfall is likely to increase till 9th and it remain constant till 14th. However, rainfall is likely to observe below 4mm/day. Eastern Coast- The rainfall pattern persisting in the Eastern slopes shall be observed in this region. Northern- Rainfall shall decrease gradually till 15th March. Southern Region- The rainfall pattern persists in the Northern region shall be observed in this region, but decreasing trend of rainfall is likely to end after 14th March.

Seasonal Prediction:As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast issued on February 2014; for March 2014 to May 2014, there is a 40-45% probability for temperature to be above normal in the country while the rainfall is to be climatological.

PACIFIC SEAS STATE February 20, 2013 :During January through early February the observed ENSO conditions moved to the borderline of cool-neutral and weak La Nina. However, most of the ENSO prediction models continue to indicate neutral ENSO into northern spring 2014. During late spring and summer a warming tendency is seen in both dynamical and statistical models.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE :The seas around Sri Lanka showed neutral sea surface temperature during 23rd February-1st March 2014.
MJO STATE :MJO is neutral.