Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 27 February, 2014

Highlights

Monitoring and Prediction
Existing rainfall condition is likely to decrease after 1st of March 2014. However, western slopes shall observe significant rainfall events during 28th February-4th March 2014. The boarder of Ratnapura and Nuwara-Eliya shall experience heavy rainfall on 28th February 2014.

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Summary

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring:During the week entire country experienced dry condition throughout, except on 23rd February most parts of Sri Lanka received less than 10 mm of rainfall.


Monthly Monitoring:Matale district received the highest average rainfall during January 2014 (more than 5mm/day). However during January 2014, entire country experienced below normal rainfall and highest negative anomaly recorded at western half of the island.

Predictions

14-day prediction:During 26th February-4th March 2014, Southwestern regions shall receive less than 15 mm of rainfall and rest of the regions shall receive less than 5 mm of rainfall. During 5th-11th March, Sri Lanka shall receive rainfall below 35 mm, where Southwestern regions shall experience more rainfall.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: For 28th of February, IMD WRF model predicts less than 65 mm of rainfall for the border of Ratnapura and Nuwara-Eliya districts. For the same day Southwestern regions shall experience less than 36 mm of rainfall and rest of the island shall experience dry condition. For 1st of March, Galle, Matara and Ampara district shall experience less than 8 mm or rainfall and rest of the country shall experience dry condition. IRI model predicts rainfall less than 25 mm/week for the entire country for the coming week (26th February-3rd March 2014).

1 Month Prediction:Overall- Existing rainfall condition is likely to decrease after 1st of March 2014. Western Slopes- Significant rainfall events are likely to experience during 28th February-4th March 2014. Thereafter rainfall shall decrease gradually. Western Coast-Existing rainfall shall remain constant till 1st of March and it shall decrease thereafter. Eastern Slopes- Rainfall shall decrease gradually. Eastern Coast- Rainfall shall vary below 5 mm/day during coming week (28th Febryary-6th March 2014). Northern- Rainfall shall decrease gradually. Southern Region- Existing rainfall shall increase gradually till 3rd March and thereafter it shall decrease gradually.

Seasonal Prediction:As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast issued on February 2014; for March 2014 to May 2014, there is a 40-45% probability for temperature to be above normal in the country while the rainfall is to be climatological.

PACIFIC SEAS STATE February 6, 2013 :During December through early January the observed ENSO conditions have remained neutral. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate a continuation of neutral ENSO into northern spring 2014. During late spring and summer a warming tendency is seen in both dynamical and statistical models

INDIAN OCEAN STATE :The seas around Sri Lanka showed neutral sea surface temperature during 16th-22nd February 2014.
MJO STATE :MJO is neutral.