Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 7 February 2013

Highlights

Monitoring and Prediction
Heavy rainfall is predicted for Ampara, Batticaloa, Hambantota and Moneragala districts during 6th February-12th February 2013. However, there shall not be high rainfall observations during the next week (7th-14th February), except for Southern regions. Rainfall is not predicted for eastern coast and slopes regions till 9th February..

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Summary

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring:During 29th January-5th February 2013 rainfall ranged between 5-145 mm. Maximum amount of rainfall was observed on the 4th February in Trincomalee district. During 29th January-2nd February entire country faced dry condition.

Predictions

7-day prediction: From 6th February-12th February 2013, heavy rainfall (more than 135 mm) is predicted for Ampara and Batticaloa districts and it shall spread in a decreasing manner towards West, South-west and North-west directions of Sri Lanka.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast:For the 8th of February 2013, IMD WRF model predicts less than 36 mm of rainfall for Matara, Galle and Ratnapura districts and rainfall shall spread in a reducing manner towards North ward direction. For the same day, model predicts less than 8 mm of rainfall for Batticaloa, Trincomalee and Ampara districts. For the 9th of February IMD WRF model predicts rainfall less than 65 mm for Hambantota district and it shall spread in a reducing manner towards North direction covering southern half of the island. NOAA model predicts heavy rainfall for the entire country and the magnitude of the rainfall shall increase towards the South-east direction of the island which shall provide extremely heavy rainfall for parts of Hambantota, Moneragala and Ampara districts from 6th– 11th February.

1 Month Prediction: Overall-There shall not be high rainfall observations during the next week (7th-14th February). However, rainfall shall increase slightly after 14th till 18th. Western Slopes & Western Coast – Existing significant rainfall condition shall decrease drastically till 12th February and it shall increase drastically after 12th February onwards. Eastern slopes & Eastern Coast - Rainfall is not predicted till 9th February. Slight increase in rainfall shall observe during 9th-10th & thereafter it shall reduce during 10th-14th. Northern region- Rainfall is not predicted for 8th-11th February. Therafter rainfall shall increase gradually throughout the month of February Southern Region- Different rainfall pattern shall exist in this region. Rainfall shall increase gradually during 7th-10th & there shall be slight rainfall peak on 10th. Thereafter rainfall shall decrease till 13th and shall increase gradually thereon.

Seasonal Prediction:As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast issued on January 2013; for February 2013 to April 2013, there is a 50%-60% probability for temperature to be above normal in the country while the rainfall is to be climatological.

PACIFIC SEAS STATE January 17, 2013 :Most of the ENSO prediction models predict natural ENSO conditions through the first half of 2013. During early January the observed SST conditions have become below average, but in the neutral range.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE :In the Pacific, the El Nino state has weakened to neutral although there is weak warming remnant in the El Nino index areas. The unusually warmer sea surfaces of the Arabian Sea/Central Western and South-Eastern Indian Ocean remain.