Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 28 February 2013

Highlights

Monitoring and Prediction
Eastern coastal belt of Sri Lanka, shall receive less than 65 mm of rainfall during 27th February-5th March and rainfall shall spreads in reducing manner towards west direction. More or less entire country shall receive no rainfall condition on the 1st & 2nd of March 2013. However rainfall shall increase gradually during 28th February-1st March and shall gradually decrease thereafter with minor fluctuations.

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Summary

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring:Rainfall ranged between 5-50 mm during 20th-25th February 2013. Maximum rainfall was observed on the 21st February for the western regions of Sri Lanka. For the rest of the days, entire Sri Lanka faced dry condition.

Predictions

7-day prediction:Eastern coastal belt of Sri Lanka shall receive less than 65 mm of rainfall during 27th February-5th March and rainfall shall spreads in reducing manner towards west direction.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast:For 1st of March 2013, IMD WRF model predicts 1-8 mm of rainfall for central regions of Hambantota district and less than 2.5 mm of rainfall for the small patch of North of Ampara. For the 2nd of March, IMD WRF model predicts less than 1-8 mm of rainfall for Matara, Galle, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts. NOAA model predicts law rainfall for Colombo, Gampaha, Puttalam, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Vavniya, Mannar, Mulativu, Kilinochchi and Jaffna districts and, rest of the regions shall receive more wet condition compared to mentioned regions from 27th February-4th March.

1 Month Prediction: Overall- Rainfall shall increase gradually during 28th February-1st of March and shall gradually decrease till 14th March with insignificant fluctuations. There shall not be any significant rainfall incidences during this period. Western Slopes & Western Coast – The rainfall pattern existing in the entire country shall be present in these two regions. However, amount of rainfall receive for this regions shall be high compared to rest of the regions. Eastern slopes & Eastern Coast – Rainfall shall increase gradually during 28th February-3rd of March and shall gradually decrease with insignificant fluctuations. Northern region- The rainfall pattern existing in the entire country shall be present in this region. Southern Region- Rainfall shall increase gradually during 28th February-8th of March with negetive and positive rates and shall gradually decrease till 13th March.

Seasonal Prediction:As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast issued on February 2013; for March 2013 to May 2013, there is a 40% probability for temperature to be above normal in the country while the rainfall is to be climatological.

PACIFIC SEAS STATE February 7, 2013 :Most of the ENSO prediction models predict natural ENSO conditions through the first half of 2013. During January the observed SST conditions have become below average, but in the neutral range.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE :The Indian Ocean around Maldives particular to the South continues to have a warm anomaly.