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Thursday, September 6, 2012

Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 30 August 2012


Weekly Monitoring: During the last week (23rd- 28th August) rainfall ranged between 0- 40 mm. Light rainfall observed in Central and South western parts of the country. On the 26th and the 27th of August Northern regions also experienced light rainfall.

Monthly Monitoring: During July, southern half of the island experienced a below average rainfall with an increased below average particularly in the Western and South Western regions. It clearly reflects the deficit of the South West Monsoon rainfall up to now. The rest of the island experienced an above average rainfall with a higher intensity in the Trincomalee district while some parts of the Moneragala district also experienced an above average rainfall.

7 Day Prediction: For the coming week an accumulated rainfall of 15 - 45 mm is predicted for the whole island with more rainfall for the South-western region.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: WRF Model Predicts 2 mm- 125 mm rainfall for the Western, South-Western and North-Western regions of the country on the 31st of August. It also predicts 1-35 mm rainfall for Eastern regions of the country. For the 1st of September, the Model predicts 2 mm- 125 mm of rainfall for the Western, South-Western and North-Western regions of the country. NOAA models forecast 0- 20 mm of rainfall for the whole country.

1 Month Prediction:  Overall rainfall shall decrease gradually during 30th August – 1st September and it shall increase until 5th. Rainfall shall decrease gradually till the 17th of September and for the period of 17th-20th rainfall is not predicted. Generally high rainfall shall not be expected. Western/Eastern Slopes: Rainfall shall fluctuate throughout the month. Northern: A fluctuation of rainfall is expected until the 8th of September. During 11th-20th rainfall is not predicted. Then it shall diminish.
Seasonal Prediction: As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for September 2012 to November 2012, issued in July 2012, there is a 50%-60% probability for temperature to be above normal in the country while the rainfall is to be climatological.

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