Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 30 August 2012

Summary

Monitoring

Weekly Monitoring: During the last week (23^rd- 28^th August) rainfall ranged between 0- 40 mm. Light rainfall observed in Central and South western parts of the country. On the 26^th and the 27^th of August Northern regions also experienced light rainfall.

Monthly Monitoring: During July, southern half of the island experienced a below average rainfall with an increased below average particularly in the Western and South Western regions. It clearly reflects the deficit of the South West Monsoon rainfall up to now. The rest of the island experienced an above average rainfall with a higher intensity in the Trincomalee district while some parts of the Moneragala district also experienced an above average rainfall.

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Predictions

7 Day Prediction: For the coming week an accumulated rainfall of 15 - 45 mm is predicted for the whole island with more rainfall for the South-western region.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: WRF Model Predicts 2 mm- 125 mm rainfall for the Western, South-Western and North-Western regions of the country on the 31^st of August. It also predicts 1-35 mm rainfall for Eastern regions of the country. For the 1^st of September, the Model predicts 2 mm- 125 mm of rainfall for the Western, South-Western and North-Western regions of the country. NOAA models forecast 0- 20 mm of rainfall for the whole country.

1 Month Prediction:  Overall rainfall shall decrease gradually during 30^th August – 1^st September and it shall increase until 5^th. Rainfall shall decrease gradually till the 17^th of September and for the period of 17^th-20^th rainfall is not predicted. Generally high rainfall shall not be expected. Western/Eastern Slopes: Rainfall shall fluctuate throughout the month. Northern: A fluctuation of rainfall is expected until the 8^th of September. During 11^th-20^th rainfall is not predicted. Then it shall diminish.

Seasonal Prediction: As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for September 2012 to November 2012, issued in July 2012, there is a 50%-60% probability for temperature to be above normal in the country while the rainfall is to be climatological.