Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 16 August 2012

Summary

 

Monitoring

Weekly Monitoring: During the last week (09^th- 14^th August) rainfall ranged between 0- 140 mm. Light rainfall observed in South-Western region of the country during 9^th-11^th August and rainfall increased on the 12^th for this region. Eastern parts received 10mm-40mm rainfall on the 13^th August while Badulla District experienced high rainfall  up to a maximum of about 140mm on the 14^th August .

Monthly Monitoring: During July, southern half of the island experienced a below average rainfall with an increased below average particularly in the Western and South Western regions. It clearly reflects the deficit of the South West Monsoon rainfall up to now. The rest of the island experienced an above average rainfall with a higher intensity in the Trincomalee district while some parts of the Moneragala district also experienced an above average rainfall.

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Predictions

7 Day Prediction: For the coming week an accumulated rainfall of 15 - 45 mm is predicted for the whole island with more rainfall for the South-western region.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: WRF Model Predicts 1mm- 65 mm rainfall for the western, south-western and north-western regions of the country on the 17^th of August. For the 18^st of August, the Model predicts same amount of rainfall with a spreading to Central region of the island. NOAA models forecast 50-75mm of rainfall for Northern, North Central, Western an North Western regions of the island and 30-50 mm rainfall for the rest of the country.

1 Month Prediction:  Overall rainfall shall decrease gradually till the 24^th of August and then shall fluctuate till the 14^th of September. Generally high rainfall shall not be expected. Western Slopes: Rainfall shall decrease rapidly till the 21^st .  No rainfall is predicted from 21^st-23^rd .Thenafter it shall increase rapidly for two days followed by rapid decrease with minor fluctuations till the 28^th. It shall show a slow increasing trend with some fluctuations till the 24^th August. Eastern Slopes: Rainfall shall fluctuate  between 2mm-5 mm   till the 14^th September. Northern: A rapid decrease of rainfall shall be observed till the 19^th  . Thenafter   rainfall shall fluctuate between 1mm- 3mm till 14^th of September.

Seasonal Prediction: As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for September 2012 to November 2012, issued in July 2012, there is a 50%-60% probability for temperature to be above normal in the country while the  rainfall is to be climatological.