May 10, 2012 Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report for Mahaweli Authority . This is an experimental climate monitoring and prediction advisory made for expert users.
Summary
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: During the week of 02nd May-07th May rainfall ranged between 0-30 mm. On 3rd & 4th no rainfall was observed for the entire country. On the 7th of May 2/3rd of the Nothern part of the island received rainfall ranging between 0-30 mm, & highest rainfall was experienced in few places of Mulativu & Vavuniya districts.
Monthly Monitoring: During April, the entire island has shown an above average rainfall.
Predictions
7 Day Prediction: During next week, an accumulated rainfall of 105 mm is predicted for the Southwestern regions of the island and it shall diminish along the Northeast way. However for the entire country an accumulated rainfall of 5 mm-105 mm is predicted.
IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: WRF Model Predicts less than 36 mm rainfall for Kalutara, Colombo and Badulla districts on 11th May 2012. On the same day less than 8 mm rainfall is predicted for the area from Puttalam to Galle, Kandy to Nuwara Eliya and Mulativu to Hambantota. For 12th May 2012, WRF Model predicts less than 65 mm of rainfall for the stretch between Gampaha to Galle, and less than 8 mm for Hambantota and Mulativu. On the same day less than 2.5 mm is predicted for Trincomalee.
1 Month Prediction: Overall, from 8th-12th May 2012, rainfall shall increase and then it shall decrease gradually till the 19th. There onwards rainfall shall increase gradually with minor fluctuations between 22nd-26th. Western Slopes- Expected rainfall for the western slopes is higher compared to other regions. Rainfall shall increase during 8th-12th May. There onwards ranfall shall gradually decrease between 12th-26th with minor variations on the 16th and 22nd. On 26th onwards rainfall shall increase gradually. Eastern Slopes- Rainfall shall increase during 8th-11th May 2012. Rainfall shall gradually decrease during 11th-24th and shall reach daily precipitation of 2 mm which is the lowest for the entire isalnd. There onwards rainfall shall increase drastically. Northern Region- Rainfall shall increase steadily during 8th-12th and shall decrease gradually till 17th May. Threafter rainfall shall increase gradually.
Seasonal Prediction: As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for May 2012 to July 2012, issued in April 2012, there is a 40%-45% probability for temperature to be below normal particularly in the northern half of the country while 40% probability for it is to be normal in the southern half. There is 40% probability for rainfall to be climatological.
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