Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 03 May 2012

May 03, 2012 Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report for Mahaweli Authority . This is an experimental climate monitoring and prediction advisory made for expert users.


Summary 

Monitoring 

Weekly Monitoring: During the week 24th April-01st May rainfall ranged between 0-190 mm. Most Parts of the country received rainfall throughout the week. The maximum rainfall of 190 mm was observed in Mulativ district on the 24th April. Compared to rest of the days in the week, 27th April and 1st of May received lesser rainfall of 5-10 mm in few isolated places in the country. 

 Monthly Monitoring: During April, the entire island has shown an above average rainfall. 

Predictions 

7 Day Prediction: In the coming week, an accumulated rainfall of 5 mm–85 mm is predicted for the Southwestern regions of the island, and 5 mm-55 mm is predicted for the rest of the island except for the Northern and North central regions. IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: WRF Model Predicts less than 1 mm rainfall for the entire country on both 4th and 05th May, 2012. NOAA NCEP CFS model (delivered via IRI map tool) predicts a total of 25mm rainfall between 1st May - 06th May 2012. 1 Month Prediction: Overall, a rapid increase of rainfall shall be expected during 2nd-6th May 2012 and shall decrease gradually till the 13th of May. Thereafter it shall increase gradually with a minor fluctuation during 13th-21st May. Western Slopes- Rainfall shall increase drastically during 2nd-6th May. Between 6th-19th May rainfall shall decrease gradually with minor fluctuations. Thereon rainfall shall increase gradually. However for the one month period the amount of rainfall that shall be expected in the western slopes will be high compared to the other regions mentioned. Eastern Slopes- Rainfall shall increase during 2nd-6th May. During 6th-18th May rainfall shall decrease gradually and shall reach minimum of 2 mm daily precipitation on 18th May. There onwards rainfall shall increase drastically. Northern Region- Rainfall shall increase during 2nd-6th May as shown in other regions and shall decrease till 11th May. Thereafter rainfall shall increase gradually till end of the May 2012. 

Seasonal Prediction: As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for May 2012 to July 2012, issued in April 2012, there is a 40%-45% probability for temperature to be below normal particularly in the northern half of the country while 40% probability for it is to be normal in the southern half. There is 40% probability for rainfall to be climatological.

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