Highlights
• During 5-11
June, there is a high likelihood of moderate rainfall (25 - 50 mm)
predicted for Puttalam town and light rainfall for the Puttalam district and
adjacent areas, with no rainfall predicted for the rest.
• During 29 May - 5 June, on average, 8.4 mm
was received in SL, rainfall was concentrated in the western hills (28 mm) and
plains (11 mm). 31 May, 1 and 2 June: extreme rainfall
(62.5mm,282mm,154mm) was recorded in Ratnapura, and floods ensued. The highest
daily rainfall (436 mm) was in Eheliyagoda on June 1.
• From 28 May- 3 June, strong winds at 850mb
(1.5 km) north westerly, reaching up to 15m/s. From 6-12 June, winds are predicted to be
westerly, reaching up to 15m/s.
• Average
maximum land surface temperature was 31.7ºC in
last week. Sea Surface Temperature around Sri Lanka was
0- 0.25ºC above normal to the north east and, the
south west is cooler. Both the EL Nino and Indian ocean dipole
patterns transitioned to neutral last week.
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models:
From 5th June - 11th June:
Total rainfall by Provinces
- 45 mm - North Western
- 25 mm - Western
- 15 mm - North Central, Sabaragamuwa, Central, Northern
- ≤5 mm - Southern, Eastern, Uva
From 12th June - 18th June:
Total rainfall by Provinces
- 75 mm - North Western
- 65 mm - Western
- 55 mm - Sabaragamuwa
- 45 mm - Central, Southern
- 35 mm - North Central
- ≤25 mm - Eastern, Northern, Uva
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall slightly suppress the
rainfall during 5th June – 19th June.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: June 3, 2024
El Niño is transitioning
toward ENSO-neutral. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the western
and central Pacific Ocean, and below-average SSTs are emerging in east central and eastern Pacific
Ocean. La Niña may develop in
June-August 2024 (49% chance) or July-September (69% chance).
Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature around Sri
Lanka was ranging from 1.0℃
below normal to 1.0℃
above normal for the country in 14th
- 20th May 2024.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: :During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall
over the following area: Ehellyagoda.
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (29th May - 6th June) = 8.4 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 281.9mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
|
Region |
Average rainfall for last 8 days
(mm) |
Average temperature for last 8
days (ºC) |
|
|
Maximum |
Minimum |
||
|
Northern plains |
3.3 |
33.0 |
26.5 |
|
Eastern hills |
4.3 |
28.9 |
20.0 |
|
Eastern plains |
4.1 |
34.2 |
26.0 |
|
Western hills |
28.6 |
27.3 |
20.6 |
|
Western plains |
11.2 |
30.8 |
26.4 |
|
Southern plains |
4.3 |
32.4 |
25.7 |
|
Region |
Average rainfall for last 8 days
(mm) |
Daily maximum rainfall for last 8
days (mm) |
Daily minimum rainfall for last 8
days (mm) |
|
All SL |
8.4 |
281.9 |
0.0 |
|
Hydro catchment |
16.4 |
264.0 |
0.0 |
Wind: North Westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature
anomalies were neutral for the Sri Lanka except some part of the Uva province driven by the warm SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall: During the next week (5th June - 11th
June), moderate rainfall (25 - 50 mm) is predicted for the Western, and North Western, provinces and light to moderate rainfall (12.5 -
25 mm) is predicted for the North Central, Sabaragamuwa, Central, Northern Provinces and light shower
is predicted for the rest.
Temperatures: The temperature will
remain above normal for some parts of the Northern, Eastern, North central and
Uva provinces during 6th June 12th June.
Teleconnections: MJO shall slightly suppress the
rainfall during 5th June – 19th June.
Seasonal Precipitation: The
precipitation forecast for the June-July-August, 2024 season shows a 50% or
more tendency toward above normal precipitation for the country.
No comments:
Post a Comment