Highlights
• High
likelihood of fairly heavy rainfall (50 - 100 mm) is predicted for the Western,
Southern, Sabaragamuwa, North Western, Central, North Central, Uva provinces and moderate rainfall (25 - 50 mm))
is predicted for the rest during 24 - 30 May.
• While on average 160 mm was received in SL,
rainfall was concentrated on the western hills and slopes. . Depression 99B reached cyclonic status as
“Remal” and shall reach the Bangala/West Bengal border regions on the 26/27th.
• Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) were north westerly
from 16 - 22 May reaching up to 15 m/s. Strong winds at 850mb (1.5 km) are predicted
north westerly from 25 - 31 May reaching
up to 20 m/s due to cyclonic storm.
• Average
land surface temperature was 30.5ºC in
the last week with cooler anomalies of (-)1-3ºC. Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was
0.5 - 2.0ºC above normal. The temperature has dropped slightly.
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP models:
From 24th May - 30th May:
Total rainfall by Provinces
- 95 mm - Western, Southern, Sabaragamuwa
- 85 mm - North Western
- 75 mm - Central
- 55 mm - North Central, Uva
- 45 mm - Northern
- 35 mm - Eastern
From 31st May - 6th June:
Total rainfall by Provinces
- 85 mm - North Western
- 75 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern
- 65 mm - Central
- 55 mm - North Central, Northern
- 45 mm- Uva, Eastern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: May 20, 2024
El Niño is transitioning toward ENSO-neutral. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the western and central Pacific Ocean, and below-average SSTs are emerging in east central and eastern Pacific Ocean. La Niña may develop in June-August 2024 (49% chance) or July-September (69% chance).
Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature around Sri
Lanka was 1.5℃ above normal for the country in 30th April -
6th May 2024.
Cyclone 'Remal'
IMD predicts that the cyclonic storm in Bay of Bengal
(BoB) shall intensify into a cyclone by the 25th and as typically
for this season shall steer away from SL. However, if the cyclone stalls there
could continue to be severe winds and heavy rainfall in the western slopes of
the mountains in SL.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: : During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the following area: Kesbewa.
Daily
Average Rainfall in the Met stations for
previous week of (17th May - 24th May) = 17.3 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 214.5 mm & Minimum
Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
|
Region
|
Average rainfall for last 8 days
(mm)
|
Average temperature for last 8
days (ºC)
|
|
Maximum
|
Minimum
|
|
Northern plains
|
19.0
|
31.4
|
25.8
|
|
Eastern hills
|
2.1
|
27.6
|
20.9
|
|
Eastern plains
|
6.2
|
32.7
|
25.9
|
|
Western hills
|
19.8
|
26.2
|
20.6
|
|
Western plains
|
35.0
|
30.3
|
25.1
|
|
Southern plains
|
3.0
|
31.4
|
25.6
|
|
Region
|
Average rainfall for last 8 days
(mm)
|
Daily maximum rainfall for last 8
days (mm)
|
Daily minimum rainfall for last 8
days (mm)
|
|
Hydro catchment
|
23.1
|
88.0
|
0.0
|
Wind: North westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies
were below normal for the some parts of the Northern and Eastern provinces driven by the warm
SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall: During the next week (24th May - 30th May),
fairly heavy rainfall (50 - 100 mm) is predicted for the Western, Southern, Sabaragamuwa,
North Western, Central, North Central, and Uva provinces and moderate rainfall (25 - 50
mm) is predicted for the rest.
Temperatures: The temperature will
remain above normal for some parts of the Eastern, Northern, and Uva provinces
during 25th - 31st May.
Teleconnections: MJO shall moderately enhance the
rainfall during 24th - 28th May, and slightly enhance the
rainfall during 29th May - 7th June for Sri Lanka
Seasonal Precipitation: The
precipitation forecast for the June-July-August, 2024 season shows a 50% or
more tendency toward above normal precipitation for the country.
No comments:
Post a Comment