Highlights
• Light showers are predicted for the Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Uva, Western, Central, Northern, Eastern and North Central provinces during 10 - 16 Aug.
• During the last week, average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 'light' (1.0 mm) and hydro catchment areas received 'light' (1.5 mm) showers.
• From 1 - 7 Aug, up to 10 m/s of north westerly winds were at 850 mb (1.5 km). During 11 - 17 Aug, up to 10 m/s of northwest-southwesterly winds are expected at 850 mb (1.5 km).
• Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was
0.5 - 1.5ºC above normal. From 2 - 9 Aug, maximum daily temperature was
recorded in Vavuniya (39.1ºC),
Polonnaruwa (37.7ºC) and Trincomalee (37.7ºC).
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models:
From 10th August – 16th August:
Total rainfall by Provinces
- 15 - Southern, Sabaragamuwa, Uva, Western, Central, Northern, Eastern, North Central
- ≤ 5 - North Western
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall near neutral the rainfall during 10th - 19th August and slightly enhance the rainfall during 20th - 24th August for Sri Lanka.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: August 7, 2023
El Nino Mode has setting according to NOAA since 8th of June. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean early-August. There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño conditions will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.
Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5 ℃ above normal to the Western and Northern half of the country in 18th - 24th July, 2023. A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8th of June.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall:
During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following area: Kandy
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (2nd August - 9th August) = 1.0 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 63.7 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
|
Region |
Average rainfall for last 8 days
(mm) |
Average temperature for last 8
days (ºC) |
|
|
Maximum |
Minimum |
||
|
Northern
plains |
0.3 |
34.7 |
26.3 |
|
Eastern hills |
3.1 |
30.6 |
19.8 |
|
Eastern
plains |
2.3 |
35.6 |
25.4 |
|
Western
hills |
0.4 |
28.7 |
19.8 |
|
Western
plains |
0.5 |
31.5 |
26.9 |
|
Southern
plains |
0.0 |
34.0 |
25.5 |
|
Region |
Average rainfall for last 8 days
(mm) |
Daily maximum rainfall for last 8
days (mm) |
Daily minimum rainfall for last 8
days (mm) |
|
Hydro catchment |
1.5 |
59.0 |
0.0 |
Wind: North westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for the Eastern, Southern, Sabaragamuwa, Uva, Central, North Central provinces and some parts of the Western, North Western, and Northern provinces of the country driven by the warm SST’s.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for the Eastern, Southern, Sabaragamuwa, Uva, Central, North Central provinces and some parts of the Western, North Western, and Northern provinces of the country driven by the warm SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall: During the next week (10th August - 16th August), light showers (≤ 15 mm) are predicted for the Southern, Sabaragamuwa, Uva, Western, Central, Northern, Eastern, North Central provinces and less rainfall is predicted for the rest of the country.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some
parts of the Eastern, Uva, Northern, North Central, and Central provinces during
11th August - 17th August.
Teleconnections: A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8th
of June. MJO shall near neutral the
rainfall during 10th - 19th August and slightly enhance
the rainfall during 20th - 24th August for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the August-September-October, 2023 season shows above normal precipitation for the country.
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