Highlights
• Fairly heavy rainfall (55 - 75 mm) is
predicted for the Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western, Central provinces and less
rainfall is predicted for the rest of the country during 13 - 19 July.
• During
the last week, average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 2.2 mm and hydro
catchment areas received 6.6 mm. Highest average rainfall of 6.2 mm/day
received in Western region.
• From 4 - 10 Jul, up to 15 m/s of northwest-westerly winds were at 850 mb (1.5 km). During 14 - 20 Jul, up to 15 m/s of
northwest-westerly winds are expected at 850 mb (1.5 km).
• Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was
0.25 - 1.5ºC above normal. Average maximum land temperature ranged from
29 - 32ºC and minimum ranged from 24 - 25ºC with a drop in the hills.
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP models: From 13th July – 19th July: Total rainfall by Provinces
- 75 - Sabaragamuwa, Southern
- 65 - Western
- 55 - Central
- 45 - Uva
- 25 - North Western
- ≤ 5 - Northern, North Central, Eastern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 13th - 27th July for Sri Lanka.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: July 10, 2023
El Nino Mode has set in now according to NOAA since 8th of June. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the east central and eastern Pacific Ocean mid-July. El Niño conditions are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24.
Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was near normal to the country in 20th - 26th June, 2023. A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8th of June.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall:
During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following areas: Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (5th July – 12th July) = 2.2 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 47.5 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
|
Region
|
Average rainfall for last 8 days
(mm)
|
Average temperature for last 8
days (ºC)
|
|
Maximum
|
Minimum
|
|
Northern
|
0.4
|
33.0
|
26.3
|
|
Eastern
|
0.7
|
32.5
|
23.2
|
|
Western
|
6.2
|
28.9
|
23.6
|
|
Southern
|
1.0
|
33.0
|
25.5
|
|
Region
|
Average rainfall for last 8 days
(mm)
|
Daily maximum rainfall for last 8
days (mm)
|
Daily minimum rainfall for last 8
days (mm)
|
|
Hydro catchment
|
6.6
|
92.0
|
0.0
|
Wind: Northwest-westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperature: The temperature anomalies were near normal for the country driven by the warm SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall: During the next week (13th July – 19th July), fairly heavy rainfall (≥ 55 mm) is predicted for the Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western and Central provinces and less rainfall is predicted for the rest of the country.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the Northern, Eastern, Uva, North Central, and Southern provinces and below normal for some parts of the Central province during 14th July – 20th July.
Teleconnections: A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8th of June. MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 13th - 27th July for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the July-August-September, 2023 season shows above normal precipitation for the country.
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