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Friday, April 7, 2023

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka ( 7 April 2023)

     

Highlights          


 • Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the Southern, Sabaragamuwa, and Western provinces and less rainfall is expected for rest of the country during the 6 th  Apr - 12th Apr.
 • During the last week, average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 5.0 mm and  hydro catchment areas received 10.3 mm.
 • From 28th - 3rd Apr, up to 2 m/s of  South easterly winds were experienced at 850 mb level almost over the island. During 8th Apr - 14th Apr, up to 4 m/s of  South easterly winds are expected for the country.
 • Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was below normal  for northern half of the island. Land surface temperature remained near normal. 



Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 6th April – 12th April:
Total rainfall by Provinces:    
  • 65 mm - Southern, Sabaragamuwa
  • 55 mm - Western
  • 35 mm - Central
  • 25 mm - North Western, North Central, Uva, Eastern
  • ≤ 5 mm - Northern
From 13th April – 19th April:
Total rainfall by Provinces:   
  • 65 mm - Southern, Sabaragamuwa
  • 55 mm - Western
  • 35 mm - Central
  • 25 mm - North Western, North Central, Uva, Eastern
  • ≤ 5 mm - Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall moderately suppress the rainfall during 6th April – 15th April, and slightly suppress the   rainfall during 16th April- 20th April for Sri Lanka.


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: April 3, 2023 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near average across most of the Pacific Ocean early- April. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is still consistent with a weak La Niña signal. A large majority of the models indicate ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer 2023.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was below - 0.5℃ to the northern half of the country in 1st February, 2023. Across the Indian Ocean, a classical negative Indian Ocean Dipole prevails as is typical during a La Niña.

 

Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall:
During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: Kurunegala

          

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (29th March – 5th April) = 5.0 mm

Maximum Daily Rainfall: 145.4 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm. 


Region

Average rainfall for the Last 8 days

Northern Plains

5.0 mm

Eastern

1.7 mm

Western

8.6 mm

Southern Plains

1.6 mm


The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 10.3 mm of average rainfall for the last week

Maximum Daily Rainfall: 75.2 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.

Wind:
South easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were above normal for some parts of the Sabaragamuwa province and normal for rest of the country driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (6th April – 12th April), fairly heavy rainfall (≥ 55 mm) is predicted for the Southern, Sabaragamuwa, and Western provinces, and less rainfall is expected for rest of the country.
Temperature:
The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the Northern, North Western, North Central, Uva, Eastern, and Western provinces during 8th April – 14th April.
Teleconnections:
ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer2023.
MJO shall moderately suppress the rainfall during 6th April – 15th April, and slightly suppress the       rainfall during 16th April- 20th April for Sri Lanka.

Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the April-May-June 2023 season shows a higher tendency of below-normal precipitation for the country except Northern Province.

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