Highlights
• Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the
Southern, Sabaragamuwa, and Western provinces and less rainfall is expected for
rest of the country during the 6 th Apr - 12th Apr.
• During
the last week, average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 5.0 mm and hydro
catchment areas received 10.3 mm.
• From 28th - 3rd Apr, up to 2 m/s of South easterly winds were experienced at 850 mb level almost over the island. During 8th Apr - 14th Apr, up to 4 m/s
of South easterly winds are expected for
the country.
• Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was
below normal for northern half of the
island. Land surface temperature remained near
normal.
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models:
From 6th April – 12th April:
Total rainfall by Provinces:
- 65 mm - Southern, Sabaragamuwa
- 55 mm - Western
- 35 mm - Central
- 25 mm - North Western, North Central, Uva, Eastern
- ≤ 5 mm - Northern
From 13th April – 19th April:
Total rainfall by Provinces:
- 65 mm - Southern, Sabaragamuwa
- 55 mm - Western
- 35 mm - Central
- 25 mm - North Western, North Central, Uva, Eastern
- ≤ 5 mm - Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall moderately suppress
the rainfall during 6th April – 15th April, and slightly
suppress the rainfall during 16th
April- 20th April for Sri Lanka.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: April 3, 2023
Equatorial
sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near average across most of the Pacific
Ocean early- April. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is still consistent with a weak
La Niña signal. A large majority of the models indicate
ENSO-neutral
conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and
early summer 2023.
Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was below - 0.5℃ to the northern half of the country in 1st February, 2023. Across the Indian Ocean, a classical negative Indian Ocean Dipole prevails as is typical during a La Niña.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall:
During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: Kurunegala
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (29th March – 5th April) = 5.0 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 145.4 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Region | Average rainfall for the Last 8 days |
Northern Plains | 5.0 mm |
Eastern | 1.7 mm |
Western | 8.6 mm |
Southern Plains | 1.6 mm |
The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 10.3 mm of average rainfall for the last week
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 75.2 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Wind:
South easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperature:
The temperature anomalies
were above normal for some parts of the Sabaragamuwa province and normal for
rest of the country driven by the warm
SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (6th April – 12th April), fairly heavy rainfall (≥ 55 mm) is predicted for
the Southern, Sabaragamuwa, and Western provinces, and less rainfall
is expected for rest of the country.
Temperature:
The temperature will remain above normal for some
parts of the Northern, North Western, North Central, Uva, Eastern, and Western
provinces during 8th April – 14th April.
Teleconnections:
ENSO-neutral conditions are
expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer2023.
MJO shall moderately suppress
the rainfall during 6th April – 15th April, and slightly
suppress the rainfall during 16th
April- 20th April for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation:
The precipitation
forecast for the April-May-June 2023 season shows a higher tendency of below-normal
precipitation for the country except Northern Province.
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