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Friday, February 10, 2023

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka ( 10 February 2023)

                 

Highlights          


 • Moderately heavy rainfall is predicted for the Northern, Eastern, and North Central provinces, and less rainfall is expected for rest of the country during 9th Feb - 15th Feb.
 • During the last week, maximum daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 189 mm in Vavuniya & 144 mm in Moneragala on 2nd February by storm '90B' and  hydro catchment areas received 56.0 mm. Highest average rainfall 20.1 mm/day received to southern plains of the country.
 • From 31st Jan - 6th Feb, up to 10 m/s of north easterly winds were experienced at 850 mb level over the island. During 10th - 16th Feb, north easterly winds are expected for the country.
 • Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was near-neutral  for the entire island. Land surface temperature remained near normal. 



Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 9th February – 15th February:
Total rainfall by Provinces:    
  • 35 mm - Northern
  • 25 mm - Eastern, North Central
  • 15 mm - North Western 
  • ≤ 5 mm - Central, Western, Southern, Sabaragamuwa, Uva
From 16th February – 22nd February:
Total rainfall by Provinces:   
  • 35 mm - Northern
  • 25 mm - Eastern, North Central, Southern
  • 15 mm - North Western, Central, Uva
  • ≤ 5 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 9th – 13th February, moderately suppress the rainfall during 14th – 18th February, and significantly suppress the rainfall during 19th – 23rd February for Sri Lanka.


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: February 6, 2023 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean early - February. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral anticipate during the February-April 2023 season by Northern Hemisphere spring (March-May 2023), the chance for ENSO-neutral is 82%.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was near neutral for the whole country in 25th January, 2023. Across the Indian Ocean, a classical negative Indian Ocean Dipole prevails as is typical during a La Niña.

 

Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall: 
During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the following area:
Vavuniya

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (1st February – 8th February) = 11.8 mm

Rmax: 189.2 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.


Region

Average rainfall for the Last 8 days

Northern Plains

14.6 mm

Eastern

12.5 mm

Western

6.6 mm

Southern Plains

20.1 mm


The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 4.6 mm of average rainfall for the last week

Rmax: 56.0 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.

Wind:
North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were below normal for some parts of the Eastern, North Central, and Western provinces, driven by the warm SST’s.


Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (9th February – 15th February), moderately heavy rainfall (≥ 25 mm) is predicted for the Northern, Eastern, and North Central provinces, and less rainfall is expected for rest of the country.
Temperature:
The temperature will remain below normal for some parts of the Central and Uva provinces during 10th – 16th February.
Teleconnections:
A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is anticipated during the February-April 2023 season by Northern Hemisphere spring (March-May 2023), the chance for ENSO-neutral is 82%.
MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 9th – 13th February, moderately suppress the rainfall during 14th – 18th February, and significantly suppress the rainfall during 19th – 23rd February for Sri Lanka.                                               

Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the February-March-April 2023 season shows a higher tendency of near-normal precipitation for the country.

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