Highlights
• Fairly heavy (> 80 mm) rainfall
is predicted for the Northern and Eastern provinces and moderately heavy (≥ 45
mm) rainfall is predicted for the rest of the country during 7th - 13th December.
• During the last week, the average daily
rainfall over Sri Lanka was 5.0 mm & hydro catchment areas received 6.9 mm
on average and the highest average rainfall (6.8 mm) was
received to the Western plains of the country.
• From 28th Nov - 4th Dec, up to 5m/s of north easterly winds were experienced at 850 mb level over the island. During 8th - 14th Dec, up to 8m/s of north westerly winds are expected to the
country.
• Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was
above normal to the western, eastern, and southern half of the country. Land surface temperature remained near
normal.
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models:
From 7th December – 13th December:
Total rainfall by Provinces:
- 95 mm - Northern
- 85 mm - Eastern
- 75 mm - North Central
- 65 mm - Central
- 55 mm - Uva, Western, Sabaragamuwa
- 45 mm - Southern, North Western
From 14th December – 20th December:
Total rainfall by Provinces:
- 105 mm - Eastern
- 95 mm - Northern, Uva, North Central
- 85 mm - Central, Sabaragamuwa
- 75 mm - Western, North Western, Southern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall slightly increase the rainfall during 7th
December – 21st December for Sri Lanka.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: December 5, 2022
Equatorial sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean early - December.
The tropical
Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña is favored to continue
through during the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) 2022-23, with
a transition to ENSO-neutral favored in February-April 2023 (57% chance).
Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature around Sri
Lanka was above 0.5℃ to
the western, eastern, and southern half of the country in 30th November,
2022. Across the Indian
Ocean, a classical negative Indian Ocean Dipole prevails as is typical during a
La Niña.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall:
During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following areas: Rathnapura,
Kalutara
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (29th November – 6th December) =5.0 mm
Rmax: 73.7 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.
Region | Average rainfall for the Last 8 days |
Northern Plains | 4.2 mm |
Eastern | 5.4 mm |
Western | 6.8 mm |
Southern Plains | 1.2 mm |
The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 6.9 mm of average rainfall for the last week
Rmax: 110.0 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.
Wind:
North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area
and around the island last week.
Temperature:
The temperature anomalies
were above normal for some parts of the Western, and Sabaragamuwa provinces, driven by the warm SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (7th Dec
– 13th Dec), fairly heavy (> 80 mm) rainfall is predicted for the Northern and Eastern provinces; and moderately heavy (≥ 45 mm) rainfall is
expected for the rest of
the country.
Temperature:
The temperature will remain below normal for some
parts of the Central, Uva, Sabaragamuwa, Northern, and Eastern provinces during 8th – 14th December.
Teleconnections:
La Niña is favored to
continue through during the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February)
2022-23, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored in February-April 2023 (57%
chance).
MJO shall slightly increase the rainfall
during 7th December – 21st December for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation:
The precipitation
forecast for the December-January-February 2023 season shows a higher tendency
for near-normal precipitation to the country.
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