Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 27, June 2019

Highlights

·   The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 25 mm of total rainfall in the entire island during 25 – 30 Jun.

·  Between 18 – 24 Jun: up to 20 mm of rainfall was recorded in in Kurunegala, Ratnapura and Batticaloa districts on the 24^th.

·  From 19 – 25 Jun: CDAS Mean Vector Wind Total Not Available.

·  1 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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Monitoring

Weekly Monitoring: On June 18^th, Monaragala and Ampara districts received up to 5 mm of rainfall. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island on the 19^th. On June 20^th, Ratnapura district received up to 5 mm of rainfall.  On the 21^st, Gampaha, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Matara, Galle, Kalutara and Colombo districts received up to 10 mm of rainfall; and Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts up to 5 mm. On the 22^nd, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Monaragala and Ampara districts received up to 5 mm of rainfall. On the 23^rd, Kurunegala, Batticaloa, Ratnapura and Kalutara districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall; and Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Ampara, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Galle and Matara districts up to 15 mm. 

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 10-25 mm in Batticaloa, Ampara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Kurunegala districts; and 5-10 mm in Polonnaruwa, Puttalam, Matale, Kandy, Badulla and Monaragala. Below average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During May – Below average rainfall conditions up to 240 mm were experienced by Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Colombo, Kalutara, Gampaha, Kurunegala and Ratnapura districts; and up to 180 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 150 mm of total rainfall in Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts; up to 100 mm in Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Matara, Badulla, Monaragala and Galle districts; up to 75 mm in Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Nuwara Eliya, Ampara and Hambantota districts; and up to 50 mm in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale and Kandy districts.

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 26^th Jun -2^nd Jul: Total rainfall up to 35 mm Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kegalle, Colombo and Ratnapura districts; up to 15-25 mm in Galle district; and up to 5-15 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts.

From 3^rd - 9^th Jul: Total rainfall up to 35 mm in Puttalam, Gampaha and Ratnapura districts; and up to 15-25 mm Kurunegala, Kegalle, Galle and Matara districts.

IMD NCMWRF Forecast: 

27^st Jun: Not Available.

28th Jun: Not Available.

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 26^th Jun 1^st Jul: Total rainfall up to 25 mm is expected in most parts of the island.

MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: June 19, 2019

SSTs in the tropical Pacific maintained a weak El Niño level during May and early June, and temperature anomalies of subsurface waters were slightly above average. Some patterns in the atmosphere show intermittent El Niño conditions. Collective model forecasts show a continuation of at least weak El Niño-level SSTs lasting through 2019. The official CPC/IRI outlook, with an El Niño advisory, calls for a 66% chance of El Niño continuing during Jun-Aug, decreasing to 50-55% for continuing through fall and winter.

Indian Ocean State

1 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.