- The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 25 mm of total rainfall in most parts of the island during 3 – 8 Apr.
- Between 26 Mar – 1 Apr: up to 20 mm of rainfalls were recorded in Badulla and Monaragala districts on the 1st.
- From 26 Mar – 1 Apr: up to 18 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
- Average sea surface temperature was observed in the southeastern seas around Sri Lanka.
Summary
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island during the period March 26th - 29th. On the 30th, Ratnapura district received up to 5 mm of rainfall. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island on the 31st. On April 1st, Badulla and Monaragala districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 5-10 mm in Badulla district. Below average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts; up to 25-50 mm in Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Monaragala, Ampara and Batticaloa districts; and up to 10-25 mm is shown for rest of the island.
Monthly Monitoring: During March – Above average rainfall conditions up to 60 mm were experienced in coastal regions of Galle and Matara districts. Below average rainfall conditions up to 180 mm were experienced by Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Monaragala, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Kandy, Kegalle, Matale, Kurunegala and Puttalam districts; and up to 60 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 100 mm of total rainfall in Gampaha, Ratnapura and Kalutara districts; up to 75 mm in Kegalle, Colombo, Galle and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 50 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala Kandy, Matara, Monaragala and Badulla districts; and up to 25 mm in Mannar, Anuradhapura, Matale, Batticaloa, Ampara and Hambantota districts.
Predictions14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 3rd – 9th Apr: Total rainfall up to 15 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts.
From 10th – 16th Apr: Total rainfall up to 25 mm in Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts; up to 5-15 mm Gampaha, Colombo and Hambantota districts.
IMD WRF Model Forecast: 5th Apr: Up to 160 mm of rainfall in Vavuniya district; and up to 10 mm in Matale, Kandy and Ratnapura districts.
6th Apr: Up to 160 mm of rainfall in Ratnapura and Badulla districts; up to 40 mm in Anuradhapura district; and up to 10 mm in Matale, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts.
IRI Weekly forecast:
From 3rd – 8th Apr: Total rainfall up to 25 mm is expected in most parts of the island.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : March 19, 2018
SSTs in the tropical Pacific increased within the weak El Niño category during February and early March, while subsurface waters became more strongly warmer than average. Patterns in the atmosphere now clearly suggest El Niño conditions. Collective model forecasts show a continuation of at least weak El Niño-level SSTs through spring and summer, likely even lasting through 2019. The official CPC/IRI outlook, with an El Niño advisory, calls for a 80% chance of El Niño prevailing during Mar-May, decreasing to 60% for Jun-Aug.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : Average sea surface temperature was observed in the southeastern seas around Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO shall not have an impact on the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 5 days; shall enhance in the following 5 days; and again, shall not have an impact in the next 5 days.
No comments:
Post a Comment