Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 7, March 2019

Highlights:

•   The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 25 mm of total rainfall in most parts of the island during 6 – 11 Mar.
•   Between 27 Feb – 4 Mar: up to 70 mm of rainfall was recorded in Galle and Matara districts on the 3rd.
•  From 26 Feb – 4 Mar: up to 15 km/h, easterly winds were experienced by the southern parts of the island.
•   Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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Summary

Monitoring

Weekly Monitoring: On February 27th, Ratnapura district received up to 30 mm of rainfall; Kegalle, Kalutara and Nuwara Eliya districts up to 20 mm; and Kandy, Monaragala, Galle and Matara districts up to 10 mm. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island during the period 28th Feb – 2nd Mar. On March 3rd, Galle and Matara districts received up to 70 mm of rainfall; Kalutara and Ratnapura districts up to 60 mm; Colombo and Hambantota districts up to 50 mm; and Kegalle district up to 20 mm. On the 4th, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Badulla districts received up to 5 mm of rainfall.

Total Rainfall for past week :  The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 75-100 mm in Galle and Matara districts; up to 50-75 mm in Ratnapura, and Kalutara districts; up to 25-50 mm in Colombo and Hambantota districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Gampaha, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Monaragala districts. Above average rainfall up to 50-100 mm in Galle and Matara districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Kalutara, Hambantota and Ratnapura districts. Below average rainfall up to 10-25 mm is shown for rest of the island.

Monthly Monitoring: During February – Above average rainfall conditions up to 210 mm were experienced in Ratnapura district; up to 180 mm in Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara Monaragala and Badulla districts and in Northern regions of Anuradhapura district; and up to 60 mm in most parts of the island. Below average rainfall conditions up to 90 mm were experienced by Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts and some regions of Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee and Monaragala, districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 300 mm of total rainfall in Colombo, Ratnapura, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts; up to 150 mm in Kegalle, Gampaha and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 100 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Hambantota, Matale, Kandy, Monaragala and Badulla districts; and up to 75 mm in Vavuniya and Kilinochchi districts. 

Predictions

14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:

From 6th – 12th Mar: Total rainfall up to 25 mm Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 5-15 mm in Hambantota, Gampaha, Puttalam, Mannar, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Mullaitivu and Trincomalee districts.

From 13th – 19th Mar: Total rainfall up to 55 mm Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 35-45 mm in Colombo, Gampaha, Nuwara Eliya, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 25-35 mm in most parts of the island.

IMD WRF Model Forecast: 

8th Mar: Up to 160 mm of rainfall in Ratnapura district; up to 80 mm in Vavuniya district.

9th Mar: Up to 80 mm of rainfall in Ratnapura and Vavuniya districts.

IRI Weekly forecast:
From 6th – 11th Mar: Total rainfall up to 25 mm in the entire island except for the Northern province.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : February 19, 2018

SSTs in the tropical Pacific cooled to a borderline El Niño level in January and early February, while subsurface waters continued to be warmer than average. However, some atmospheric patterns of El Niño that had been lacking, finally developed in late January and February. Collective forecasts of models show a return to weak El Niño-level SSTs into summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook, now carrying an El Niño advisory, calls for a 65% chance of El Niño prevailing during Feb-Apr, decreasing to 50% for Apr-Jun.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE :   Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

MJO STATE :  MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka in next 5 days; shall not have an effect in the following 5 days; and shall suppress in the next 5 days.