- The NCEP weekly rainfall forecast predicts total rainfall up to 45 mm in Trincomalee districts during 1th - 8th August.
- Between 25 - 31 Jul: up to 50 mm of rainfall was recorded in Ratnapura district on the 30th.
- From 22 - 28 Jul: minimum temperature of 20 OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while Jaffna, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Batticaloa and Ampara districts recorded a maximum temperature between 35-40 OC.
- From 24 - 30 Jul: up to 36 km/h, northwesterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
- 0.5 OC below average sea surface temperature was observed in the western seas of Sri Lanka.
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Summary
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: On July 25th, Ampara, Badulla and Monaragala districts received up to 30 mm of rainfall; Batticaloa district up to 20 mm; and Matale, kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts up to 10 mm. On the 26th, Badulla and Monaragala districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall; and Batticaloa district up to 10 mm. On the 27th, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Batticaloa districts received up to 5 mm. On the 28th, Ampara, Badulla and Nuwara Eliya districts received up to 5 mm of rainfall. On the 29th, Kegalla and Nuwara Eliya districts received up to 10 mm of rainfall; and Kandy district up to 5 mm. On the 30th, Ratnapura district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Kegalla, Kalutara and Galle districts up to 30 mm; Colombo, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Matara districts up to 20 mm; and Puttalam, Gampaha, Kurunegala and Hambantotoa districts up to 10 mm. On the 31st, Nuwara Eliya and Kurunegala districts received up to 20 mm; and Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalla, Ratnapura and Ampara districts received up to 10 mm.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall 25-50 mm of total rainfall in Kegalla, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kaluatra, Galle, Polonnaruwa, Badulla and Monaragala districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Hambantota, Kandy, Matale ans Batticaloa districts. Above average rainfall up to 10-25 mm is shown for Kegalla, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara.
Monthly Monitoring: During July - above average rainfall conditions up to 60 mm were experienced by Nuwara Eliya, Monaragala and northern regions of Ampara districts; and rest of the island experienced up to 60 mm of below average rainfall. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 150 mm of total rainfall in Kegalla, Ratnapura, Colombo, Nuwara Eliya and Kaluatra districts; and up to 100 mm in Badulla, Monaragala, and Gampaha districts.
Predictions
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 1st –7th Aug: Total rainfall between 35-45 mm in Trincomalee district; between 25-35 mm in Polonnaruwa and Batticaloa districts; between 15-25 mm in Jaffna, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara, Kegalla, Ratnapura, Colombo and Galle districts.
From 8th – 14th Aug: Total rainfall between 35-45 mm in Trincomalee district; and between 25-35 mm in Mullaitivu, Polonnaruwa, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala, Kegalla, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Galle and Matara districts.
IMD WRF Model Forecast: 4th Aug: Up to 10 mm of rainfall in Ratnapura districts.
5th Aug: No rainfall.
IRI Weekly forecast:
From 1st – 6th Jul: Total rainfall up to 50 mm expected in Colombo and Kalutara districts.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : July 18, 2018
In mid-July 2018, the east-central tropical Pacific waters reflected ENSO-neutral conditions, with slightly above average SST. The key atmospheric variables also suggested neutral conditions. The subsurface water temperature continued to be above-average. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for neutral conditions through northern summer season, with a 65% chance of El Niño development during fall, rising to 70% for winter 2018-19. An El Niño watch is in effect. The latest forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively favor weak El Niño development by late summer or early fall, growing to weak or moderate strength during late fall and winter; forecasters are largely buying into this scenario now that the spring barrier is largely passed.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : 0.5 OC below average sea surface temperature was observed in the western seas of Sri Lanka.
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