- The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts total rainfall between 150-200 mm in Kalutara and Galle districts during 30th May-04th Jun.
- Between 23-29 May: up to 90 mm of rainfall was recorded in Trincomalee district on the 24th.
- From 20-26 May: minimum temperature of 20 OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while Ampara district recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35 OC.
- From 22-28 May: up to 36 km/h, southwesterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
- 0.5 OC above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
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Summary
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: On May 23rd, Colombo district received up to 60 mm of rainfall; Jaffna, Gampaha, Kalutara, Kegalla, Nuwara Eliya, Galle and Ratnapura districts up to 50 mm; Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Kurunegala,, Kandy and Matara districts up to 30 mm; and Mannar, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Monaragala, Badulla and Anuradhapura districts up to 20 mm. On the 24th, Trincomalee district received up to 90 mm of rainfall; Puttalam and Kurunegala districts up to 60 mm; Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kandy and Ratnapura districts up to 50 mm; Vavuniya, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Ampara, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts up to 30 mm; and rest of the country up to 20 mm. On the 25th, Kurunegala district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Puttalam, Kegalla, Gampaha, Badulla and Monaragala districts up to 30 mm; Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, Ratnapura and Ampara districts up to 20 mm. On the 26th, Colombo, Gampaha and Kegalla districts received up to 50 mm; Puttalam, Kurunegala and Kalutara district up to 30 mm; and Galle district up to 20 mm. On the 27th, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Gampaha, Kegalla, Kandy, Colombo, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Galle and Hambantota districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall; and rest of the country up to 10 mm. On the 28th, Gampaha district received up to 30 mm of rainfall; Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Kegalla, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Colombo and Ratnapura districts up to 20 mm. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island on the 29th.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall 100-150 mm of total rainfall in Puttalam, Gampaha, Kegalla, Kurunegala, Ratnapura, Colombo and Kalutara districts; up to 75-100 mm in Trincomalee, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Galle districts; and 25-50 mm in rest of the country. Above average rainfall up to 100-200 mm is shown for Puttalam district; up to 100-200 mm in Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Kalutara, Colombo, Kegalla, Ratnapura and Gampaha districts. Below average rainfall up to 25-50 mm in northern regions of Badulla and Monaragala districts.
Monthly Monitoring: During April - above average rainfall conditions were experienced by southwestern regions of the island; and rest of the country experienced below average rainfall. Vavuniya and Jaffna districts received up to 150 mm below average rainfall; and Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Matale, Kandy and Kurunegala districts up to 90 mm. Galle and Matara districts received above average rainfall up to 150 mm; and Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalla, Ratnapura and Nuwara Eliya districts up to 90 mm. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~500 mm of total rainfall in Kurunegala, Kegalla, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts; up to 300 mm Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy, Badulla, and Monaragala districts; up to ~200 mm in Anuradhapura, Matale and Hambantota districts; and up to 150 mm in Mannar, Polonnaruwa and Ampara districts.
Predictions
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 30th May – 05th Jun: Total rainfall between 115-125 mm in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Colombo and Kalutara districts; between 105-115 mm in Anuradhapura, Matale, Gampaha, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Galle districts; between 95-105 mm in Puttalam, Polonnaruwa and Matara districts; between 85-95 mm in Trincomalee district; between 75-85 mm in Vavuniya, Mullaitivu and Monaragala districts; Up to 65 mm total rainfall rest of the island.
From 06th – 12th Jun: Total rainfall between 115-125 mm in Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; between 105-115 mm in Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts; between 95-105 mm in Puttalam, Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts; between 85-95 mm in Anuradhapura Matale, Kandy and Hambantota districts; between 75-85 mm in Polonnaruwa Badulla and Monaragala districts.
IMD WRF Model Forecast: 1st Jun: Up to 80 mm of rainfall in Ratnapura, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kalutara, Galle, Hambantota, Monaragala Badulla and Ampara districts; and up to 20 mm in Batticaloa, Matale, Kegalle, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts.
2nd Jun: Up to 80 mm of rainfall in Kurunegala, Matale, Gampaha, Kegalle, Kandy, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Ratnapura, Monaragala and Batticaloa districts; and up to 20 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Colombo, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Ampara districts.
IRI Weekly forecast:
From 30th May-04th Jun: Total rainfall between 150-200 mm in Kalutara and Galle districts; between 100-150 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura and Matara districts; between 75-100 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala and Nuwara Eliya districts; between 50-75 mm in Kandy and Hambantota districts; between 25-50 mm in Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, Mullaitivu, Trincomalee and Batticaloa districts; Up to 25 mm total rainfall rest of the island.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : May 18, 2018
In mid-May 2018, the east-central tropical Pacific waters reflected ENSO-neutral conditions. Most key atmospheric variables also indicated neutral conditions, although the upper level wind anomalies show remnants of La Niña. The subsurface water temperature continued to be above-average. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for neutral conditions through the September-Novemeber season, with a nearly 50% chance of El Niño development by year’s end. The latest forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively favor weak El Niño development by year’s end, but forecasters hedge on this due to low confidence at this time of year.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : 0.5 OC above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 5 days and shall suppress in the following 10 days.
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