- The NCEP weekly rainfall forecast predicts total rainfall between 55-65 mm in Kalutara, Gampaha, Colombo and Galle districts during 25th Apr-1st May.
- Between 18-24 Apr: up to 50 mm of rainfall was recorded in Galle on the 21st, Kurunegala on the 23rd and Ratnapura on the 24th.
- From 15-21 Apr: minimum temperature of 15 OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Anuradhapura and Kurunegala districts recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35 OC.
- From 17-23 Apr: up to 18 km/h, southeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
- 1 OC above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
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Summary
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: On April 18th, Mannar and Anuradhapura districts received up to 30 mm of rainfall; Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Colombo and Kegalla districts up to 20 mm; and most of the country up to 10 mm. On the 19th, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalla and Ratnapura districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall; and rest of the northern and western regions of the island up to 10 mm. On the 20th, Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura and southern regions of Kurunegala districts received up to 10 mm of rainfall; Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya and Trincomalee districts up to 20 mm; and most parts of the island up to 10 mm. On the 21st, Galle district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Kalutara and Matara districts up to 20 mm; and Ratnapura district up to 10 mm. On the 22nd, Kurunegala, Kegalla, Kandy and Colombo districts received up to 20 mm; and Matale, Plonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Kalutara, Galle and Matara up to 10 mm. On the 23rd, Kurunegala district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Anuradhapura and Matale districts up to 30 mm; and Puttalam and Polonnaruwa districts up to 20 mm; and rest of the western and central regions of the island up to 10 mm. On the 24th, Ratnapura district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Kegalla, Kalutara and Galle districts received up to 30 mm; Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Monaragala districts up to 10 mm; and most of the country up to 10 mm.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall of 50-75 mm in Ratnapura and Galle districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Mannar, Vavuniya, Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Kegalla, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, Matara and Badulla districts. Below average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Gampaha, Colombo and Anuradhapura districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalla, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara and Polonnaruwa districts.
Monthly Monitoring: During March - below average rainfall conditions were mainly experienced by northern and central regions of the island. Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Matara and Kegalla and western regions of Matale district received up to 120 mm below average rainfall. Above average rainfall up to 90 mm was received by Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Colombo, Galle, Hambantota, Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara and Trincomalee districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~300 mm of total rainfall in Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura districts; up to 200 mm Kurunegala, Matale, Kegalla, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Monaragala; up to 100 mm Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Ampara and Hambantota districts;and up to ~75 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi and Vavuniya districts.
Predictions
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 25th Apr- 1st May: Total rainfall between 55-65 mm in Kalutara, Gampaha, Colombo and Galle districts; between 45-55 mm in Ratnapura, Matara and Hambantota districts; between 35-45 mm in Kegalle and Nuwara Eliya districts; between 25-35 mm in Kandy, Monaragala and Badulla districts; between 15-25 mm in Ampara district.
From 02nd – 8th May: Total rainfall between 115-125 mm in Galle district; between 105-115 mm in Kalutara and Matara districts; between 95-105 mm in Ratnapura and Hambantota districts; between 85-95 mm in Kegalle, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Monaragala districts; between 75-85 mm in Ampara district; between 65-75 mm in Gampaha, Puttalam and Kurunegala districts.
IMD WRF Model Forecast: Not Available
IRI Weekly forecast:
From 25th – 30th Apr: Total rainfall between 50-75 mm in Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Ampara, Polonnaruwa, Kegalla and Ratapura districts.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : April 19, 2018
In mid-April 2018, the east-central tropical Pacific waters were at warm-neutral to borderline La Niña levels, while many key atmospheric variables continued to indicate weak La Niña. Importantly, the east Pacific subsurface water temperature has become moderately above average. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for a transition from La Niña to neutral conditions during the March-May season, with a further warming tendency later in the year. The latest forecasts of statistical and dynamical models support this scenario.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : 1 OC above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO not have an impact on the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 10 days and shall suppress in the following 5 days.
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