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Thursday, February 1, 2018

Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 1, February 2018

Highlights:

  •   The NCEP weekly forecast predicts total rainfall between 105-115 mm in Ampara district during 30th Jan-05th Feb.
  •   Between 24-30 Jan: up to 50 mm of rainfall was recorded in Nuwara Eliya on the 29th and in Badulla on the 30th.
  •   From 21-27 Jan: minimum temperature of 15 OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while western and southern parts of the island recorded a maximum temperature between  30-35 OC.
  •   From 23-29 Jan: up to 18 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
  •   0.OC below average sea surface temperature was observed in the northern seas of Sri Lanka.

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Summary

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring: No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island during 24th- 28th Jan. On January 29th Nuwara Eliya district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Kandy district up to 40 mm; Badulla and Monaragala districts up to 30 mm; Batticaloa, Ampara, Kegalla, Ratnapura, Galle, Hambantota and Matale districts up to 20 mm; and up to 10 mm in most parts of the island. On the 30th, Badulla district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Nuwara Eliya and Ampara districts up to 40 mm; Nuwara Eliya, Monaragala and Hambantota districts up to 30 mm; and Kegalla, Ratnapura, Hambantota, Matale, and Batticaloa districts up to 20 mm. 


Total Rainfall for past week :  The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall of 75-100 mm in Nuwara Eliya district; Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts up to 50-75 mm; and Hambantota, Kegalla and Ratnapura districts up to 25-50 mm. It also shows above average rainfall up to 50-100 mm in Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts; up to 25-50 mm in Kandy, Matale, Monaragala and Ampara districts. Below average rainfall up to 10-25 mm is shown for Mullaitivu, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo and Kalutara districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During December - below average rainfall conditions were experienced by the entire island except for several regions of Ratnapura, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts. Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Ampara districts received up to 180 mm below average rainfall; and Gampaha, Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy and Galle districts received up to 150 mm. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~300 mm of total rainfall in Badulla, Monaragala and Ratnapura districts; up to ~200 mm in Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura districts; and Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kegalla, Matale, Galle, Matara, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee and Ampara districts up to 100 mm.

Predictions

14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 30th Jan–05th Feb: Total rainfall between 105-115 mm in Ampara district; between 95-105 mm in Batticaloa and Monaragala districts; between 85-95 mm in Badulla and Hambantota districts; between 75-85 mm in Polonnaruwa, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura districts; between 65-75 mm in Matale and Matara districts; between 55-65 mm in Trincomalee, Kegalle, Kalutara and Galle districts; between 45-55 mm in Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Gampaha and Colombo districts; between 25-35 mm in Vavuniya and Puttalam districts; Up to 25 mm total rainfall rest of the island.

From 06th – 12th Feb: Total rainfall between 5-15 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalla, Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts; Up to 5 mm of total rainfall rest of the island.

IMD WRF Model Forecast: 
02nd Feb: Up to 7.6 mm of rainfall in Ampara, Monaragala, Hambantota and Kegalla districts; Up to 2.5 mm in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Badulla, Matara, Galle, Kalutara and Colombo districts.

03rd Feb: Up to 7.6 mm of rainfall in Ampara and Monaragala districts; Up to 2.5 mm in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Badulla, Hambantota, Galle, Kalutara and Colombo districts.

IRI Weekly forecast:
From 31st Jan - 05th Feb: Total rainfall between 50-75 mm in Batticaloa, Ampara, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Galle, Kalutara, Colombo, Gampaha and Kegalle districts; between 25-50 mm in Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Hambantota and Matara districts; Up to 25 mm total rainfall rest of the island.


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : January 19, 2017
In mid-January 2018, the tropical Pacific reflected La Niña conditions, with SSTs in the east-central tropical Pacific in the range of weak to moderate La Niña and most atmosphere variables showing patterns suggestive of La Niña conditions. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates weak La Niña continuing through the Northern Hemisphere winter and early spring, followed by a return to neutral conditions during spring. This scenario is consistent with the official CPC/IRI outlook, which continues its La Niña advisory.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE :   0.5 0C below average sea surface temperature was observed in the northern seas of Sri Lanka.

MJO STATE :  MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

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