- The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts total rainfall between 200-250 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya and Trincomalee districts during 22nd - 27th Nov.
- Between 15-21 Nov: Rainfall up to 80 mm was recorded in Gampaha district on November 18th.
- From 12-18 Nov: minimum temperature of 15 OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while most parts of the island recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35 OC.
- From 14-20 Nov: up to 15 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
- Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
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Summary
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island on the 15th and 16th. On November 17th, Badulla district received up to 20 mm of rainfall; and several regions of Monaragala, Matale, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts up to 10 mm. On the 18th Gampaha district received up to 80 mm of rainfall; southern regions of Puttalam and Kurunegala districts up to 60 mm; Colombo and Kegalla districts up to 50 mm; Ratnapura, Kegalla and western regions of Anuradhapura districts up to 30 mm; and Galle district up to 20 mm. On the 19th, Badulla and Ampara districts received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Kandy, Kegalla, Nuwara Eliya and Monaragala districts up to 30 mm; and Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Matara, Hambantota, Matale, and Batticaloa districts up to 20 mm. On the 20th Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts received up to 30 mm of rainfall; Kurunegala, Kegalla, Ratnapura, Matara and Hambantota districts up to 20 mm; and many parts of the island up to 10 mm. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island on the 21st.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall of 75-100 mm in Puttalam and Gampaha districts; up to 50-75 mm in Kurunegala, Kegalla, Ratnapura and Colombo districts; up to 25-50 mm Anuradhapura, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts. It shows above average rainfall up to 25-50 mm in Gampaha and Puttalam districts. It also shows below average rainfall up to 50-100 mm in Jaffna, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Kurunegala, Ratnapura, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts; and up to 25-50 mm in rest of the island.
Monthly Monitoring: During October - below average rainfall conditions were experienced in the northern, western and southern regions of the island and above average rainfall in central and eastern regions. Puttalam and Galle districts received up to 180 mm below average rainfall; Jaffna, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Gampaha, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Matara and Hambantota districts up to 120 mm. Polonnaruwa district received up to 240 mm of above average rainfall; Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala and Matale districts up to 150 mm; and Kandy, Kegalle and Nuwara Eliya districts up to 120 mm. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~360 mm of total rainfall in Polonnaruwa district; up to ~300 mm in Anuradhapura, and Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Ampara, Badulla, Kurunegala, Kegalla, Ratnapura and Matale districts.
Predictions
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 22nd –28th Nov: Total rainfall between 125-135 mm in Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; More than 135 mm total rainfall rest of the island.
From 29th Nov - 05th Dec: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Jaffna district; between 125-135 mm in Kilinochchi district; between 115-125 mm in Mullaitivu district; between 95-105 mm in Mannar and Vavuniya districts; between 85-95 mm in Anuradhapura and Trincomalee districts; between 65-76 mm in Polonnaruwa and Batticaloa districts; between 45-55 mm in Puttalam, Ampara, Badulla and Monaragala districts; Up to 45mm total rainfall rest of the island.
IMD GFS Model Forecast:
28th Nov: Up to 200 mm of rainfall in Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Badulla, Colombo, Gampaha and Kalutara districts; Up to 130 mm in Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Kandy, Matale, Kegalle, Galle and Matara districts; Up to 70 mm in Monaragala, Hambantota, Kilinochchi, Kurunegala and Puttalam districts.
IRI Weekly forecast:
22nd – 27th Nov: Total rainfall between 200-250 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya and Trincomalee districts; between 150-200 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa and Batticaloa districts; between 100-150 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts; between 75-100 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts; between 50-75 mm in Galle and Matara districts.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : November 20, 2017
In mid-November 2017, the tropical Pacific reflected weak La Niña conditions, with SSTs in the east-central tropical Pacific past the threshold of La Niña and most atmosphere variables showing patterns suggestive of weak La Niña conditions. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates weak La Niña as the most likely scenario for the remainder of Northern Hemisphere fall and for the winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook favors continuation of La Niña through winter, and carries a La Niña advisory.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.
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