- The WRF model predicts up to 64 mm of rainfall in Kalutara district on 11th of August.
- Between 2-8 Aug: Rainfall up to 80 mm was recorded in Polonnaruwa, Ampara and Batticaloa districts on the 7th.
- From 30 Jul- 5 Aug: minimum temperature of 20 OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while Northern and Eastern regions of the island recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35 OC.
- From 1-7 Aug: up to 29 km/h, northwesterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
- 0.5 OC above average sea surface temperature was observed in the Northern and Eastern seas around Sri Lanka.
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Summary
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: On August 2nd, No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island; and adjacent eastern sea up to 80 mm of rainfall. On the 3rd Hatton region in Nuwara Eliya district received up to 20 mm of rainfall. On the 4th Ratnapura district received up to 30 mm of rainfall; Kalutara, Kegalla, Nuwara Eliya and Kandy districts up to 20 mm. On 5th several regions of Galle, Matara and Monaragala districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall. On 6th many of the southern parts of the island received up to 10 mm of rainfall. On 7th Polonnaruwa, Ampara and Batticaloa districts received up to 80 mm of rainfall; Matale, Badulla and Monaragala districts up to 50 mm; Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Kurunegala and Kandy districts up to 30 mm; and Ratnapura and Nuwara Eliya districts up to 20 mm. On the 8th coastal regions of Batticaloa district received up to 60 mm of rainfall; Vavuniya district up to 30 mm; and Polonnaruwa, Matale, Trincomalee and several regions of Badulla and Monaragala districts up to 20 mm.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall of 75-100 mm in Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Matale, Ampara, Ratnapura, Badulla and Monaragala districts; and up to 50-75 mm in Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Colombo and Kalutara districts; and 25-50 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Puttalam and Gampaha districts. It shows above average rainfall and up to and 50-100 mm in Polonnaruwa, Ampara and Batticaloa districts; and up to 25-50 mm Trincomalee, Monaragala and Matale districts.
Monthly Monitoring: During July - below average rainfall conditions were experienced in the southern and western regions of the island and above average rainfall in eastern regions. Colombo, Kegalla and Nuwara Eliya districts received up to 150 mm below average rainfall; and Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala, Hambantota, Ratnapura, Matara and Kalutara districts received up to 120 mm. Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Ampara districts received up to 60 mm of above average rainfall. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~100 mm of total rainfall in Batticaloa , Polonnaruwa and Ampara districts; up to ~75 mm Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Kuruegala, Matale, Kandy, Ratnapura, Kalutara and Galle district; and up to 50 mm in many parts of the island.
Predictions
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 9th – 15th Aug: Total rainfall between 25-35 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and between 15-25 mm in Jaffna, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Badulla, Monaragala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Gmpaha, kegalla, Ratnapura and Galle districts.
From 16th – 22nd Aug: Total rainfall between 25-35 mm in Kegalla and Ratnapura districts; and between 25-35 mm in Gampaha, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Galle and Matara districts.
IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast:
11th Aug: Up to 64 mm of rainfall in Kalutara district; up to 35 mm of rainfall in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalla, Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 8 mm in many parts of the island.
12th Aug: Up to 36 mm of rainfall in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Kegalla, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle district; and up to 8 mm of rainfall in many parts of the island.
Seasonal Prediction: Apr to Jun: the total 3-month precipitation shall be climatological for the whole country. The 3-month temperature has more than 70-80% likelihood in the whole of the island of being in the above-normal tercile.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : July 19, 2017
In mid-July 2017, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, with SSTs near the El Niño threshold in the east-central tropical Pacific but the atmosphere maintaining ENSO-neutral patterns. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates ENSO-neutral as the most likely condition during summer through fall and into winter with chances for El Niño development at about 35-40%.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : 0.5 OC above average sea surface temperature was observed in the Northern and Eastern seas around Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO shall not have a significant impact on the rainfall in Sri Lanka for the next 10 days and shall suppress the rainfall in the following 5 days.
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