Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 18 June, 2015

Highlights:


During 10th – 16th June 2015 Western, Central and North provinces received rainfall up to 20-40 mm. In 11th, 15th, and 16th June, rainfall up to 30 mm was observed in the ocean near Western and Eastern provinces. Rainfall up to 30 mm was observed in Vavuniya, Galle, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Badulla, Kalutara, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Western province on 10th, 11th, 14th, 15th and 16th June. NOAA models predict high rainfall in Western region of the country in the next fortnight.
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Summary

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring::During the time period 10th June – 16th June 2015, Western, Central and Northern regions of the country mostly received rainfall. On the 10th June, rainfall up to 20 mm was observed in Jaffna district. On the 11th June, Western province, Galle, Puttalam, Kurunegala and Badulla districts received rainfall up to 20-30 mm and the rest of the country received light rainfall. On 12th, 13th, 14th and 15th June, there were no significant rainfall was observed in the entire country but Kalutara and some regions in Moneragala district received rainfall up to 30 mm. On the 16th June, Western province, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Southern region of Kurunegala and Southern region of Badulla districts observed rainfall up to 30 mm. The ocean around Western and Eastern provinces received rainfall up to 30 mm on 11th, 15th and 16th June.


Monthly Monitoring:In the month May 2015, most of the country received above average rainfall while Colombo, Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle, and the western regions of Kegalle, Ratnapura, Matara, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts received below average rainfall.

Predictions

14-day prediction: NOAA NCEP models predict high rainfall in western region of the country during 17th – 30th June. Up to 45 mm total rainfall is expected during the first week. The rainfall shall decrease up to 30 mm in the following week and western, southern and eastern region of the country shall receive rainfall.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: According to the IMD WRF model Kurunegala and Ratnapura districts shall receive rainfall up to 65 mm/day while the entire western half of the country shall receive rainfall up to 35 mm on 19th June and the rest of the country shall not receive rainfall. The rainfall shall be continued on 20th June and Ratnapura district shall receive rainfall up to 65 mm and the rest of the country shall not receive rainfall. IRI CFS model also predicts high rainfall in Western province and Galle district on 22nd – 27th June.

Seasonal Prediction:As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for June to August, the total 3 month precipitation shall be climatological. The 3 month temperature has more than 70-80% likelihood in the entire country of being in the above-normal tercile during this period.

PACIFIC SEAS STATE June 10, 2015 :During late May through early-June 2015 the SST was at a weak to moderate Niño level. The atmospheric variables also indicate an El Niño pattern, including weakened trade winds, low Southern Oscillation Index and excess rainfall in the central tropical Pacific. The consensus of ENSO prediction models indicate weak to moderate El Niño conditions during the May-July 2015 season in progress, likely strengthening during summer and lasting through 2015.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : 1 degree C above average temperature was observed around Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE :MJO phase is in 3 therefore shall enhance rainfall in Sri Lanka.