Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 7 Aug, 2014

Highlights

Monitoring and Prediction

Less than average rainfall was observed during July. On the 1st of August very high rainfall was observed in south western region of Sri Lanka.
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Summary

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring:: No rainfall was observed on the 29th and 30th. Rainfall was observed only in Kurunegala district on the 31st. Very high rainfall was observed in South-western region on the 1st. Less rainfall was observed during the next three days in the same region.


Monthly Monitoring:Less than average rainfall was observed throughout the country during July.

Predictions

14-day prediction:Up to 45 mm rainfall is expected in the south western parts of the country during 13th -19th August.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: According to the IMD WRF model the entire southern region shall receive rainfall. IRI models predict rainfall up to 50 mm in the south western region.

Seasonal Prediction:As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast issued on July 2014; for August 2014 to October 2014, the precipitation shall be climatological while there is a 70% chance that temperature shall be above normal.

PACIFIC SEAS STATE July 17, 2014 :During June through early-July the observed ENSO conditions remained near the borderline of a weak El Niño condition in the ocean, but the atmosphere so far has shown little involvement. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate more warming coming in the months ahead, leading to sustained El Niño conditions by the middle or late portion of northern summer.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE :A 0.5⁰C positive sea surface anomaly was observed around Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE :MJO is at phase 2 in the Indian Ocean and shall affect rainfall in Sri Lanka.