Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 10 April, 2014

Highlights

Monitoring and Prediction
Existing rainfall condition shall increase gradually till 15th and it shall decrease gradually thereafter for coastal regions of Sri Lanka. For the coming two days (12th & 13th April 2014), Ratnapura district shall receive less than 36 mm of rainfall. During 7th-12th April, Badulla district is likely to experience heavy rainfall.

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Summary

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring:During 31st March-6th April 2014, Sri Lanka received rainfall ranged 5-70 mm. The maximum amount of rainfall observed for Anuradhapura district on 5th April 2014. End of the week received more rainfall compared to beginning of the week.


Monthly Monitoring:Southwest regions of Sri Lanka received more average rainfall compared to the rest of the regions during March 2014. However during February 2014, entire country experienced below normal rainfall and highest negative anomaly recorded at Ratnapura district.

Predictions

14-day prediction:During 8th-21st April 2014, Entire country shall receive less than 5 mm/day of rainfall.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: For 12th & 13th of April, IMD WRF model predicts less than 36 mm of rainfall for Ratnapura district & shall spread towards Northeast in a reducing manner. IRI model predicts less than 75 mm/6 days of rainfall for Badulla district and shall spread towards nearby districts in a reducing manner (7th-12th April 2014).

1 Month Prediction:Overall-Existing rainfall condition shall increase gradually till 15th and it shall decrease gradually thereafter. However, significant rainfall is not expected. Western Slopes- The rainfall is likely to decrease till 20th April. Western Coast- The rainfall pattern persisting in the entire country shall be observed in this region. Eastern Slopes- Existing rainfall shall increase gradually till 20th. Eastern Coast- The rainfall pattern persisting in the entire country shall be observed in this region. Northern- The rainfall pattern persisting in the entire country shall be observed in this region. Southern Region- The rainfall pattern persisting in the entire country shall be observed in this region. However, rainfall is not predicted during 15th-24th.

Seasonal Prediction:As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast issued on March 2014; for April 2014 to June 2014, there is a 40-45% probability for temperature to be above normal in the country while the rainfall is to be climatological.

PACIFIC SEAS STATE April 10, 2014 :During February through March the observed ENSO conditions varied from the borderline of weak La Niña to cool-neutral. However, many of the ENSO prediction models indicate a warming trend, with neutral ENSO during northern spring 2014 and a fairly likely development of weak El Niño conditions by the end of northern summer
INDIAN OCEAN STATE :The seas around Sri Lanka showed neutral sea surface temperature during 23rd-29th March 2014.
MJO STATE :MJO is neutral.