Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 28 November, 2013

Highlights

Monitoring and Prediction
Rainfall shall decrease gradually till 3rd of December and shall increase gradually thereafter. However, significant rainfall shall not observe for the coming week (29th November-5th December 2013). For coming two days (29th & 30th December), Ratnapura district shall receive more rainfall compared to the rest of the island. Heavy rainfall is likely to observe for parts of Badulla, Moneragala, Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura districts during 26th November-1st December 2013.

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Summary

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring: During 19th-25th November 2013, rainfall ranged 5-125 mm/day. Entire country received rainfall on 19th & 23rd November. Maximum rainfall observed on 25th November for Moneragala district.


Monthly Monitoring: Kurunegala district received highest average rainfall during the month of October 2013.

Predictions

7-day prediction: During 26th November-2nd December 2013, southern half of the island shall experience 5-75 mm of rainfall.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: For 29th of November, IMD WRF model predicts less 8 mm of rainfall for Ratnapura district and on 30th rainfall is likely to spread towards Galle district in same amount. NOAA model predicts heavy rainfall for parts of Badulla, Moneragala, Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura districts during 26th November-1st December 2013.

1 Month Prediction:Overall- Rainfall shall decrease gradually till 3rd of December and shall increase gradually thereafter. Western Slopes – The rainfall pattern persisting in the entire country shall be observed in this region with more amount of rainfall. Western Coast – Rainfall shall decrease gradually till 5th of December and shall increase gradually thereafter. Eastern Slopes– Rainfall shall decrease gradually till 1st of December and rainfall is not predicted thereafter (till 8th of December). Eastern Coast – The rainfall is not predicted till 11th December 2013. Northern region- Rainfall shall decrease gradually till 1st of December and shall increase after 4th December. Rainfall is not predicted during 1st-4th December. Southern Region- The rainfall shall decrease drastically till 1st of December and shall remain constant between 1-6 mm/day thereafter.

Seasonal Prediction:: As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast issued on November 2013; for December 2013 to February 2014, there is a 50-60% probability for temperature to be above normal in the country while the rainfall is to be climatological.

PACIFIC SEAS STATE October 17, 2013 :During October through mid- November the observed ENSO conditions remained neutral. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate a continuation of neutral ENSO into the first quarter of 2014. During northern spring and summer a warming tendency is seen in both dynamical and statistical models.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE :Southern sea of Sri Lanka showed +10C anomaly and rest of the seas around Sri Lanka showed neutral seas surface temperature during 3rd-9th November 2013.
MJO STATE :MJO is neutral and shall not influence Sri Lanka rainfall.