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Thursday, May 2, 2013

Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 2 May, 2013


Highlights

Monitoring and Prediction
South-western regions of Sri Lanka shall receive rainfall in the coming week (2nd-6th May, 2013) and on 3rd & 4th May, South-western coastal regions shall receive heavy rainfall compared to other regions of Sri Lanka. Western regions shall receive peak rainfall around 5th & 6th May. During May 2013 to July 2013, there is a 45-50% probability for temperature to be above normal in the country while the rainfall is to be climatological.

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Summary

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring:Rainfall ranged between 5-70 mm during 23rd-30th April 2013. Maximum rainfall was observed on the 24th April in Ratnapura district. During this period, more or less the entire country experienced rainfall.

Predictions

7-day prediction:Southern 2/3rd of the Island shall receive 5-95 mm of rainfall and 55-95 mm of rainfall shall concentrate towards South-western regions of the Island during 29th April-5th May 2013.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast:For 3rd of May 2013, IMD WRF model predicts 36-65 mm of rainfall in South-western coastal regions of Sri Lanka and 1-36 mm of rainfall is predicted for the rest of the island, except for minute regions at Kurunegala and Hambantota (Less than 1mm/day). Then for the 4th of May, IMD WRF model predicts 36-65 mm of rainfall in South-western coastal regions of Sri Lanka and rainfall shall concentrate towards the South-western regions of Sri Lanka. NOAA model predicts 25-75 mm of rainfall for the Southern 2/3rd of the island 1st-6th May.

1 Month Prediction:OverallFor 3rd of May 2013, IMD WRF model predicts 36-65 mm of rainfall in South-western coastal regions of Sri Lanka and 1-36 mm of rainfall is predicted for the rest of the island, except for minute regions at Kurunegala and Hambantota (Less than 1mm/day). Then for the 4th of May, IMD WRF model predicts 36-65 mm of rainfall in South-western coastal regions of Sri Lanka and rainfall shall concentrate towards the South-western regions of Sri Lanka. NOAA model predicts 25-75 mm of rainfall for the Southern 2/3rd of the island 1st-6th May.

Seasonal Prediction:As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast issued on April 2013; for May 2013 to July 2013, there is a 45-50% probability for temperature to be above normal in the country while the rainfall is to be climatological.

PACIFIC SEAS STATE April 18, 2013 :During February through March the observed ENSO conditions remained in the neutral ENSO conditions. Most of the ENSO prediction models call for neutral ENSO conditions through northern summer 2013, but some statistical models call for weak La-Nina while some dynamical models call for warming & possible weak El-Nino.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE :The Indian Ocean around Sri Lanka particular to the Bay of Bengal continues to have a warm anomaly up to 0.5˚C. Warm SST conditions are spreading towards seas north of Sri Lanka.

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