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Thursday, May 2, 2013

Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 2 May, 2013


Highlights

Monitoring and Prediction
South-western regions of Sri Lanka shall receive rainfall in the coming week (2nd-6th May, 2013) and on 3rd & 4th May, South-western coastal regions shall receive heavy rainfall compared to other regions of Sri Lanka. Western regions shall receive peak rainfall around 5th & 6th May. During May 2013 to July 2013, there is a 45-50% probability for temperature to be above normal in the country while the rainfall is to be climatological.

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Summary

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring:Rainfall ranged between 5-70 mm during 23rd-30th April 2013. Maximum rainfall was observed on the 24th April in Ratnapura district. During this period, more or less the entire country experienced rainfall.

Predictions

7-day prediction:Southern 2/3rd of the Island shall receive 5-95 mm of rainfall and 55-95 mm of rainfall shall concentrate towards South-western regions of the Island during 29th April-5th May 2013.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast:For 3rd of May 2013, IMD WRF model predicts 36-65 mm of rainfall in South-western coastal regions of Sri Lanka and 1-36 mm of rainfall is predicted for the rest of the island, except for minute regions at Kurunegala and Hambantota (Less than 1mm/day). Then for the 4th of May, IMD WRF model predicts 36-65 mm of rainfall in South-western coastal regions of Sri Lanka and rainfall shall concentrate towards the South-western regions of Sri Lanka. NOAA model predicts 25-75 mm of rainfall for the Southern 2/3rd of the island 1st-6th May.

1 Month Prediction:OverallFor 3rd of May 2013, IMD WRF model predicts 36-65 mm of rainfall in South-western coastal regions of Sri Lanka and 1-36 mm of rainfall is predicted for the rest of the island, except for minute regions at Kurunegala and Hambantota (Less than 1mm/day). Then for the 4th of May, IMD WRF model predicts 36-65 mm of rainfall in South-western coastal regions of Sri Lanka and rainfall shall concentrate towards the South-western regions of Sri Lanka. NOAA model predicts 25-75 mm of rainfall for the Southern 2/3rd of the island 1st-6th May.

Seasonal Prediction:As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast issued on April 2013; for May 2013 to July 2013, there is a 45-50% probability for temperature to be above normal in the country while the rainfall is to be climatological.

PACIFIC SEAS STATE April 18, 2013 :During February through March the observed ENSO conditions remained in the neutral ENSO conditions. Most of the ENSO prediction models call for neutral ENSO conditions through northern summer 2013, but some statistical models call for weak La-Nina while some dynamical models call for warming & possible weak El-Nino.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE :The Indian Ocean around Sri Lanka particular to the Bay of Bengal continues to have a warm anomaly up to 0.5˚C. Warm SST conditions are spreading towards seas north of Sri Lanka.

56 comments:

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  4. Trekking in Nepal…Family Adventure style
    The towering Himalayas are, to many travellers’ minds, the chief reason for visiting Nepal. The country tumbles steeply down from the 800km stretch of the Himalayan battlements that forms its northern border, and can claim no fewer than eight of the world’s ten highest peaks – including, of course, Everest, the highest of them all. The mountains are more than just physically astonishing, however. The cultures of highland-dwelling Nepalese peoples are rich and fascinating, and the relaxed, companionable spirit of trekking life is an attraction in itself. The Himalayas have long exerted a powerful spiritual pull, too. In Hindu mythology, the mountains are where gods go to contemplate, while the Sherpas and other mountain peoples hold certain peaks to be the very embodiment of deities.
    Most visitors to mountain areas stick to a few well-established trekking routes. They have good reasons for doing so: the classic trails of the Everest region with its famous trails like Everest Base camp trek and the 3 high passes are both mind blowing ventures and highly popular in the world. And Annapurna regions are so popular because they offer close-up views of the very highest peaks; this includes Annapurna 1 & 2, fishtail peak and Ganesh Himal trek. Famous treks like the Ghorepani Poon Hill Trek, Annapurna Base camp trek & the Annapurna Circuit trek are some of the most famous on earth. Dramatic scenery and fascinating local cultures are most known in this area. Lodges on the main trails – some as sophisticated as ski chalets, these days – make it possible to go without carrying a lot of gear or learning Nepali, and without spending too much money, either. While trekking, you’ll likely eat and sleep for $20–30 a day. For those who put a high priority on getting away from it all, there are plenty of less-developed routes, of course, and simply going out of season or taking a side-route off the main trail makes a huge difference.
    The Helambu and Langtang regions are less striking but conveniently close to Kathmandu, attracting a little fewer than ten percent of trekkers. The Langtang valley trek & the Ganja-La pass are known trails in this area. This leaves vast areas of eastern and far western Nepal relatively untrodden by visitors. To hike in these areas you’ll need either to get set for camping and carry your own supplies, and live like a local, or pay to join an organized trek with tents and accept the compromises that go along with that.
    With a good operator, you can anywhere in the wild. A Great Himalayan Trail now runs the length of highland Nepal – though it will be for some time, if ever, before such a route will be serviced by lodges.
    Treks in remote far eastern and far western Nepal are mostly restricted to two kinds of globe trotters, both adventurous in their own way. The majority come on organized camping treks with agencies – in fact, this is obligatory for those areas that require a permit. The minority are independent trekkers prepared either to carry tents and food or negotiate with porters, or to seek food and lodging in local homes and basic lodges. Some great camping outdoors include the Manaslu circuit Trek, Upper Mustang trek the Dhaulagiri circuit, Rara lake trek and the great Kangchenjunga trek, both north and south.

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