Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 10 April, 2013

Highlights

Monitoring and Prediction
Western half of the island shall receive rainfall and more rainfall shall be concentrated to Kalutara district during 9th-15th April. For the coming two days (11th & 12th April) Uva, Sabaragamuwa and Central provinces shall expect heavy rainfall compared to other regions of the island.

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Summary

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring:Rainfall ranged between 5-32 mm during 2nd-7th March 2013. Maximum rainfall was observed on the 6th & 7th March in a part of Ratnapura district. On the 4th more or less entire country received rainfall between 5-20 mm.

Predictions

7-day prediction:Western half of the island shall 5-55 mm of rainfall and 45-55 mm of rainfall shall be concentrated to Kalutara district during 9th-15th April.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast:For 11th of April 2013, IMD WRF model predicts 8-36 mm of rainfall for Moneragala, Badulla, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Kandy, Matale, Anuradhapura, Batticaloa & Vavuniya districts and, spreads towards nearby regions in a reducing manner. In the same day, for the rest of the island less than 1 mm of rainfall is predicted. For the 12th of April, IMD WRF model predicts 8-36 mm of rainfall for the Badulla, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya and, shall spread towards nearby regions in a reducing manner. In the same day Northern and Western halves of the island shall receive less than 1 mm of rainfall. NOAA model predicts less than 20 mm of rainfall for entire country from 7th-14th April.

1 Month Prediction:Overall- During 10th-13th rainfall is not predicted. Thereafter rainfall shall increase gradually till 19th. Western Slopes – Existing rainfall shall increase drastically till 12th and thereafter it shall gradually decrease, but the rainfall shall remain in between 3-5 mm during 11th-19th. Western Coast – The rainfall pattern existing in the island shall be present in this region. Eastern slopes - The rainfall pattern existing in the island shall be present in this region. Eastern Coast – Rainfall is not predicted till 25th. Northern region- Rainfall is not predicted till 17th. Southern Region- Rainfall is not predicted till 25th. But there shall be less than 1 mm of daily rainfall during 12th-15th.

Seasonal Prediction:As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast issued on March 2013; for April 2013 to June 2013, there is a 45-50% probability for temperature to be above normal in the country while the rainfall is to be climatological.

PACIFIC SEAS STATE April 4, 2013 :During February through March the observed ENSO conditions remained in the neutral ENSO conditions. Most of the ENSO prediction models call for neutral ENSO conditions through northern summer 2013, but some statistical models call for weak La-Nina while some dynamical models call for warming & possible weak El-Nino.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE :The Indian Ocean around Sri Lanka particular to the South continues to have a warm anomaly up to 1˚C. Warm SST conditions are spreading towards seas north of Sri Lanka.