Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 11 October 2012

Summary

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring: During 3rd-8th of October, rainfall ranged between 0-60 mm. No significant amount of rainfall reported during 3rd-5th in any part of the country. On the 8th entire country received rainfall and heavy rainfall was received for Northern half of the country.

Monthly Monitoring: In September, Central and South Eastern regions of the country received below average rainfall and the rest of the country received above average rainfall. Particularly Western, South Western and Jaffna peninsula regions were observed having a high positive anomaly.

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Predictions

7-day prediction: During this week, an accumulated rainfall of 65- 75 mm is predicted for the Southwestern region of the island. Rest of the country except North and North-Central regions shall receive 15- 55 mm rainfall.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: On 12th of October Northern half and Uva regions shall receive less than 36 mm rainfall and rainfall shall spread towards southern half of the country with a decreasing pattern. However Southern province shall expect no rainfall for the same day. On 13th North and North-Central regions shall receive rainfall less than 36 mm and scattered areas of the Southern half of the country shall receive rainfall less than 8 mm. NOAA models forecast 20 mm rainfall for South and South-Eastern regions and 40 mm rainfall for the rest of the country.

1 Month Prediction: Overall- Rainfall shall fluctuate between 2-6 mm throughout the next 30 days. Western Slopes- Rainfall shall fluctuate until the 21st of October and shall stop completely by the 26th after decreasing rapidly in 21st- 26th period. After the 26th it shall steadily increase upto 7 mm until the 29th. Then once again rainfall shall decrease until the 3rd of November and shall increase thereafter. Eastern slopes- Same rainfall pattern shall exsits as mentioned for the entire country, except on 26th daily rainfall shall not reach 0 mm as previous. Northern- Rainfall shall decrease down to 1 mm until 14th of October. Afterthat a gradual increment of rainfall is expected until the 20th and thereafter shall decrease gradually 29th. Thereafter rainfall shall increase gradually till beginning of the November 2012.

Seasonal Prediction: As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for Oct0ber 2012 to December 2012, issued in September 2012, there is a 50%-60% probability for temperature to be above normal in the country while the rainfall is to be climatological.