Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 7 June 2012

 Summary

Monitoring 

Weekly Monitoring: During last week (30th May- 04th June) rainfall ranged between 5mm-20mm. A scattered rainfall was observed in the most parts of the island particularly in the southern half except northern region on the 30th of May. Some parts of the Southwestern region received up to a 15mm of rainfall on the 1st June. There was no significant rainfall during rest of the week. 

Monthly Monitoring: During the month of May some part of the Galle, Matara, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts experienced above average rainfall but the surplus is below 30mm. A below average rainfall was for the rest. 

Predictions 

7 Day Prediction: For the coming week, an accumulated rainfall of 5mm- 55mm is predicted for the Southwestern and Western regions of the island. 

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: WRF Model Predicts 1mm-65mm rainfall particularly for the Southwestern, Western and Northwestern regions on the 9th of June. The same conditions are predicted on the 10th but high rainfall of about 65mm shall be expected particularly for the Colombo, Gampaha and Kalutara districts. IRI models forecast predicts up to 20mm of rainfall for the entire island. 

1 Month Prediction: Overall a rapid increase of rainfall shall be observed till the 8th of June. Thenafter it shall decrease dramatically till the 16th followed by a quite steady conditons for a week. Again it shall slowly increase up to the first week of the July. However wet conditions shall be expected with some fluctuations. Western slopes- Nearly the same pattern shall be expected but with an increased rainfall. A rapid increase of rainfall shall be observed till the 9th of July . Thenafter It shall decrease dramatically with few fluctuations till the 23rd followed by a gradual increase. Eastern slopes- Rainfall shall decrease dramatically with few fluctuations till the 22nd. Thenafter a rapid increase shall be experienced and wet conditions shall be expected towards the end of the month. Northern region- Wet conditions shall be expected till the 11th of June followed by steady conditions till the 30th. Then after it shall increase gradually.

Seasonal Prediction: As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for June 2012 to August 2012, issued in May 2012, there is a 45%-50% probability for temperature to be above normal for the country. There is 40% probability for rainfall to be climatological. 

 Inside this Issue 

1. Monitoring 

a. Daily Satellite Derived Rain fall Estimates 

b. Monthly Rain fall Estimates 

c. Decadal (10 Day) Satellite Derived Rainfall Estimates 

d. Weekly Average SST Anomalies 

2. Predictions 

a. NCEP GFS Ensemble 1-7 day predictions, NOAA, CPC,USA 

b. IMD WRF Model Forecast 

c. Weekly precipitation forecast (IRI) 

d. 1 month experimental predictions by Paul Roundy and L. Zubair 

e. Seasonal Predictions from IRI 

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