Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (8 March 2024)

                                        

Highlights          

 • High likelihood of   light showers (15mm) is predicted for the Eastern, Uva and Centeral  provinces during      6 - 12 March.

 •  Rainfall on 28 Feb was highest (88 mm) at  Rufus Wewa (EP). During the last February, 60mm rainfall expected but received only 10 mm.

 •  Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) were north easterly from 26 Feb - 3 Mar reaching up to 8 m/s. Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) are predicted north easterly from 7 - 13 Mar reaching up to 4 m/s.

 •  Maximum daily temperature was in Kurunegala (37.0ºC) & Katunayake (36.7ºC). Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.25 - 1.5ºC above normal. Strong EL Nino and positive indian ocean dipole patterns sustained.

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 6^th March - 12^th March:   

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 15 mm - Eastern, Uva, Central 
• ≤ 5 mm - Northern, Southern, Sabaragamuwa, Western, North Central, North Western

From 13^th March - 19^th March:  

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 15 mm - Eastern, Central, Sabaragamuwa, Uva, Western, Southern 
• ≤ 5 mm - Northern, North Western, North Central 

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 6^th - 10^th March, slightly suppress the rainfall during 11^th - 15^th March, and moderately suppress the rainfall during 16^th - 20^th March for Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: March 4, 2024 

The SST Anomalies for the NINO3.4 region shows a +1.7 ºC on the week ending 4^th March - thus a moderate-strong El Nino is sustained. Consensus of models predict a continuation of the El Niño event until May 2024 before weakening thereafter.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5℃ above normal to the Northern, Western, and Southern half of the country in 13^th February - 19^th February 2024. A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8^th of June.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: : During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following areas: Rufus Wewa, Kahaduwa.

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (28^th February - 6^th March) = 0.0 mm

Maximum Daily Rainfall: 2.7 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.

Region	Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Average temperature for last 8 days (ºC)
		Maximum	Minimum
Northern plains	0.0	32.8	23.5
Eastern hills	0.0	27.0	16.6
Eastern plains	0.0	32.2	24.0
Western hills	0.1	29.9	17.8
Western plains	0.0	33.9	24.9
Southern plains	0.0	34.2	24.4

Region	Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Daily maximum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Daily minimum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)
Hydro catchment	0.1	5.0	0.0

Wind: North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for some parts of the Southern, Western, Sabaragamuwa, North Western, Eastern, Central, and Uva provinces of the country driven by the warm SST’s.         

Predictions

Rainfall: During the next week (6^th March - 12^th March), light showers (15 mm) is predicted for the Eastern, Uva, and Central provinces of the country.

Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the Western, North Western, Northern, North Central, Southern, and Uva provinces during 7^th - 13^th March.

Teleconnections: A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8^th of June.

MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 6^th - 10^th March, slightly suppress the rainfall during 11^th - 15^th March, and moderately suppress the rainfall during 16^th - 20^th March for Sri Lanka.

Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the March-April-May, 2024 season shows a 40% tendency toward above normal precipitation for the southern half of the country.        

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (1 March 2024)

                          

Highlights          

 • High likelihood of light showers (15 mm) is predicted for the Eastern, Uva and Central provinces during  28 February - 5 March

 • Rainfall on 23 Feb was highest (117 mm) at Kukuleganga (WP). During the last week, average daily rainfall was 0.8 mm and hydro catchment was 3.9 mm.

 • Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) were north easterly from 19 - 25 Feb reaching up to 5 m/s. Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) are predicted north easterly from 29 Feb - 6 Mar reaching up to 4 m/s. 

• Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5 - 1.5ºC above normal. Strong EL Nino and positive Indian ocean dipole patterns sustained. Maximum daily temperature was in Ratnapura (37.5ºC) & Katunayake (36.9ºC).

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 28th February - 5th March:  

Total rainfall by Provinces 

• 15 mm - Eastern, Uva, Central
• ≤ 5 mm - Northern, North Western, North Central, Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern

From 6th March - 12th March:  

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 25 mm - Eastern
• 15 mm - Central, Uva, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western 
• ≤ 5 mm - Northern, North Western, North Central

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall moderately enhance the rainfall during 28^th February - 3^rd March, slightly enhance the rainfall during 4^th - 8^th March, and near neutral the rainfall during 9^th - 13^th March for Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: February 26, 2024 

The SST Anomalies for the NINO3.4 region shows a +1.7 ºC on the week ending 26^th Feb - thus a moderate-strong El Nino is sustained. Consensus of models predict a continuation of the El Niño event until May 2024 before weakening thereafter.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 1.0℃ above normal to the country on 6th February - 12^th February 2024. A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8^th of June.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: : During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: Kukuleganga.

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (21^st February - 28^th February) = 0.8 mm

Maximum Daily Rainfall: 34.2 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.

Region	Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Average temperature for last 8 days (ºC)
		Maximum	Minimum
Northern plains	0.7	32.8	24.7
Eastern hills	0.2	27.4	18.0
Eastern plains	0.3	32.3	24.7
Western hills	3.3	29.7	18.8
Western plains	0.5	34.3	25.4
Southern plains	0.1	33.6	24.9

Region	Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Daily maximum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Daily minimum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)
Hydro catchment	3.9	117.0	0.0

Wind: North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for the country except some parts of the Northern province driven by the warm SST’s. 

Predictions

Rainfall: During the next week (28^th February - 5^th March), light showers (≤ 15 mm) are predicted for the Eastern, Uva, and Central provinces of the country.

Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the North Western, Southern, Uva, Western, Northern, North Central, and Eastern provinces during 29^th February - 6^th March.

Teleconnections: A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8^th of June.

MJO shall moderately enhance the rainfall during 28^th February - 3^rd March, slightly enhance the rainfall during 4^th - 8^th March, and near neutral the rainfall during 9^th - 13^th March for Sri Lanka.

Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the March-April-May, 2024 season shows a 40% tendency toward above normal precipitation for the southern half of the country.