Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka ( 5 March 2021)

 

Highlights                             

•  Showers of 55 mm expected in Eastern province during 4th - 10th  March. A drop in rainfall over the rest of the country.

  •  Heavy rainfall was experienced in Western and Southern provinces. Up to 79 mm max in Kalutara on 23rd  Feb. 

•  From 23rd Feb - 1st  March: up to 6 km/h Northeasterly winds were experienced around along Sri Lanka.

•  Sea surface temperature was observed near- neutral all along around Sri Lanka.

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 25 – 50 mm - Kalutara, Galle
• 10 – 25 mm - Matara, Ratnapura
• 5 – 10 mm - Kurunegala, Kandy, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle
• 2 – 5 mm - Puttalam, Nuwara Eliya

There was no rainfall in the week in the remaining districts.

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Excess

• 25 – 50 mm - Kalutara, Galle

Rainfall Deficit

• 10 – 25 mm - Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla, Moneragala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, Matara, Hambantotta, Kegalle, Ratnapura

There was no rainfall in the week in the remaining districts.

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

11^th – 20^th February:

• 6 mm - Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar
• 4 mm - Badulla, Moneragala, Nuwara Eliya, Matara, Hambantota, Kegalle, Ratnapura
• 2 mm - Jaffana, Vavuniya, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Matale, Kandy, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle

21^st – 28^th February:

• 6 mm - Kalutara, Galle, Ratnapura
• 4 mm - Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, Matara, Kegalle
• 2 mm -Puttalam, Kurunegala, Ampara, Badulla, Moneragala, Matale, Kandy, Gampaha, Hambantota

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 4^th – 10th March:

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 55 mm - Eastern
• 35 mm - Uva
• 25 mm - North Central, North western, Southern, Western, Central, Sabaragamuwa
• 15 mm - Northern

From 11^th – 17th March:

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 45 mm   - Eastern
• 25 mm   - Central, Uva
• 15 mm -Northern, North Central, North western, Southern, Western, Sabaragamuwa

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 3rd–7th March and Neutral during 8th – 17th  March.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: February 24, 2021 

Equatorial Eastern and western Pacific SST reached La Niña threshold in late-February, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions.

Indian Ocean State

Sea surface temperature was observed near-neutral all along around Sri Lanka.