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Saturday, May 29, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (28 May 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  •   Showers of 125 mm expected in Western, Sabaragamuwa during 28th May – 2nd June and  145 mm North Western, Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern in 3rd  - 9th  June  
  •   Last week was wetter than normal in most of SL.  Thunder showers in Central province with a maximum of  188.5 mm in Kandy on 24th May
  From 19th  - 25th May: up to 15 km/h from the West and South were experienced. Due to a deep depression located in East Central Bay of Bengal that intensified into a cyclonic storm (“YAAS”) on May 24th around 05:30 a.m.
•  Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5℃ above average around the island. The SST in the Arabian Sea has dropped after the heavy rainfall last week.
•  The SST forecast indicates that the La Niña event has transitioned to ENSO-neutral. 







Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:
  • 150 – 200 mm - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Kandy, Kalutara
  • 100 – 150 mm - Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Galle, Matara 
  • 75 – 100 mm - Badulla, Moneragala, Hambantota
  • 50 – 75 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Matale
  • 25 – 50 mm - Ampara

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts
Rainfall Excess
  • 100 – 200 mm - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura
  • 50 – 100 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Galle, Matara
  • 25 – 50 mm - Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Moneragala, Hambantota

Monthly Monitoring
Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:


1st – 10th May:
  • 16 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Badulla, Moneragala, Anuradhapura, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Kurunegala
  • 14 mm - Ampara, Kilinochchi
  • 12 mm - Polonnaruwa
  • 6 mm- Batticaloa, Trincomalee
  • 4 mm  - Jaffna

11th – 20th May:
  • 14 mm Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo 
  • 12 mm Kalutara, Ratnapura, Kegalle
  • 10 mm Galle, Matara
  • 8 mm Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla, Moneragala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Hambantota 
  • 6 mm Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Matale
  • 4 mm Mannar

Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 28th May – 2nd June: 
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • 125 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
  • 115 mm - North Western, Southern
  • 95 mm  - Central
  • 55 mm  - Uva
  • 45 mm  - North Central, Eastern
  • 25 mm  -Northern
From 3rd – 9th June: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 145 mm - North Western, Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern
  • 125 mm - Central
  • 95 mm  - Uva
  • 85 mm  - North Central, Eastern
  • 65 mm  - Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
 MJO shall slightly suppressed the rainfall during 26th May –4th June and significantly suppressed the rainfall during 5th– 9th June.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: May 12, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the east to the Middle West Pacific Ocean in mid May and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring.

Indian Ocean State
Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5℃ above average around the island. The SST in the Arabian Sea has dropped after the heavy rainfall last week.

Friday, May 21, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (21 May 2021)

 


Highlights          

                   

  •   Showers of 145 mm expected in Western, Southern and Sabaragamuwa during 21st May – 1st June.
  •   Last week was wetter than normal in most of SL.  Thunder showers in Western province with a maximum of  336 mm in Kalutara on 13th May.
  From 11th  - 17th May: up to 10 km/h from the West and South wind were experienced. Cyclone Takutae travelled along the western part of the Kerala, Maharashtra and Gurajat coasts and there were long-range effects even this week.   
•  Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5℃ above average around the island.
•  The SST forecast indicates that the La Niña event has transitioned to ENSO-neutral. 







Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:
  • 150 – 200 mm  - Moneragala
  • 100 – 150 mm - Polonnaruwa, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Batticaloa, Ampara, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Gamapaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Kegalle, Ratnapura
  • 75 – 100 mm - Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Matale
  • 50 – 75 mm - Kilinochchi, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya
  • 25 – 50 mm - Jaffna

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts
Rainfall Excess
  • 100 – 200 mm - Polonnaruwa, Hambantota, Moneragala, Badulla, Ampara, Batticaloa
  • 50 – 100 mm - Mannar, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Trincomalee, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara
  • 25 – 50 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi

Monthly Monitoring
Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:


21st – 30th April:
  • 16 mm - Badulla, Moneragala, Ampara
  • 14 mm - Kegalle
  • 12 mm - Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Ratnaputa, Kandy, Vavuniya, Mannar
  • 10 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya
  • 8 mm - Mullaitivu, Batticaloa, Kurunegala
  • 6 mm - Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Matale
  • 4 mm  - Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee
  • 2 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi

1st – 10th May:
  • 16 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Badulla, Moneragala, Anuradhapura, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Kurunegala
  • 14 mm - Ampara, Kilinochchi
  • 12 mm - Polonnaruwa
  • 6 mm- Batticaloa, Trincomalee
  • 4 mm  - Jaffna

Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 21st – 25th May: 
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • 145 mm - Western, Southern, Sabaragamuwa
  • 125 mm - Central
  • 95 mm - North Western
  • 85 mm - Uva
  • 75 mm - North Central
  • 65 mm - Northern, Eastern
From 26th May – 1st June: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 145 mm - Southern, Sabaragamuwa
  • 125 mm - Western
  • 105 mm - North Western, Central
  • 95 mm  - Uva
  • 55 mm  - North Central
  • 45 mm  - Northern, Eastern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
 MJO shall significantly enhance the rainfall during 18th–22nd May, Neutral during 23rd– 27th May and severely suppressed rainfall during 28th May – 1st June.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: May 12, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the east to the Middle West Pacific Ocean in mid May and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring.

Indian Ocean State
Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5℃ above average around the island.

Friday, May 14, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (14 May 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  •   Showers of 145 mm expected in Western, Southern and Sabaragamuwa during 13th – 18th May and 125 mm expected in Sabaragamuwa and Southern during 19th – 25th  May
  •   Last week was wetter than normal in most of SL. Thunder showers in Western province with a maximum of  148 mm in Colombo on 9th May.
  From 4th  - 10th May: up to 5 km/h from the West and South were experienced. 
•  Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5℃ above average around the island.
•  The SST forecast is for the present weak La Niña conditions to transition into ENSO neutral conditions.




Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:
  • 75 – 100 mm - Puttalam, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara, Hambantota
  • 50 – 75 mm - Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Matale, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla, Moneragala
  • 25 – 50 mm - Kilinochchi, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Trincomalee
  • 10 – 25 mm - Jaffna

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts
Rainfall Excess
  • 50 – 100 mm - Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Badulla, Moneragala, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kandy, Matale,  Nuwara Eliya, Puttalam, Kurunegala 
  • 25 – 50 mm - Kilinochchi, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Batticaloa
  • 10 – 25 mm - Jaffna

Monthly Monitoring
Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:


21st – 30th April:
  • 16 mm - Badulla, Moneragala, Ampara
  • 14 mm - Kegalle
  • 12 mm - Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Ratnaputa, Kandy, Vavuniya, Mannar
  • 10 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya
  • 8 mm - Mullaitivu, Batticaloa, Kurunegala
  • 6 mm - Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Matale
  • 4 mm  - Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee
  • 2 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi

1st – 10th May:
  • 16 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Badulla, Moneragala, Anuradhapura, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Kurunegala
  • 14 mm - Ampara, Kilinochchi
  • 12 mm - Polonnaruwa
  • 6 mm- Batticaloa, Trincomalee
  • 4 mm  - Jaffna

Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 13th – 18th May: 
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • 145 mm - Western, Southern, Sabaragamuwa
  • 135 mm - North Western
  • 125 mm - Central
  • 105 mm - Uva
  • 95 mm - Northern, North Central, Eastern
From 19th – 25th May: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 125 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Southern
  • 105 mm - Western
  • 95 mm   - Central
  • 85 mm   - North Central, North Western
  • 75 mm   - Uva, Eastern
  • 65 mm  - Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
 MJO shall significantly enhance the rainfall during 11th–25th May.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: May 5, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the east to the Middle West Pacific Ocean in early May and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring.

Indian Ocean State
Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5℃ above average around the island.

Friday, May 7, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (7 May 2021)

 


Highlights          

                   

  •   Showers of 135 mm expected in Southern & Sabaragamuwa during 7th – 11th May and 145 mm expected in Southern province during 12th – 18th May.
  •   Last week was wetter than normal in most of SL. Thunder showers in Southern province with a maximum of  157 mm in Matara on 3rd May.
  From 26th  Apr - 2nd May: up to 5 km/h from the West and South were experienced.
•  Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5℃ above average around the island.
•  The SST forecast is for the present weak La Niña conditions to transition into ENSO neutral conditions.




Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:
  •   150 – 200 mm - Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota
  • 100 – 150 mm - Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Matale, Gampaha, Colombo, Badulla, Moneragala
  • 75 – 100 mm - Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar
  • 10 – 25 mm - Jaffna

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts
Rainfall Excess
  • 100 – 200 mm - Kandy, Ampara, Moneragala, Badulla, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara, Hambantota
  • 50 – 100 mm - Kilinochchi, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Trincomalee, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Batticaloa, Colombo, Gampaha, Kegalle
  • 25 – 50 mm - Jaffna

Monthly Monitoring
Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:


11th – 20th April:
  • 14 mm - Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Moneragala, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kurunegala, Matara, Hambantota
  • 10 mm - Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Galle
  • 8 mm - Mannar
  • 6 mm - Kilinochchi
  • 4 mm - Jaffna

21st – 30th April:
  • 16 mm - Badulla, Moneragala, Ampara
  • 14 mm - Kegalle
  • 12 mm - Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Ratnaputa, Kandy, Vavuniya, Mannar
  • 10 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya
  • 8 mm - Mullaitivu, Batticaloa, Kurunegala
  • 6 mm - Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Matale
  • 4 mm  - Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee
  • 2 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi

Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 7th – 11th May: 
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • 135 mm - Southern, Sabaragamuwa
  • 115 mm - Western
  • 105 mm - Central, North Western, North Central
  • 95 mm - Eastern, Uva
  • 85 mm - Northern
From 12th – 18th May: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 145 mm - Southern
  • 135 mm - Sabaragamuwa
  • 125 mm - Western
  • 105 mm - North Western
  • 95 mm - Central
  • 85 mm - North Central, Uva
  • 75 mm - Eastern
  • 65 mm - Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall significantly enhance the rainfall during 4th–18th May.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: April 28, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the east to the Middle West Pacific Ocean in late April and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring.

Indian Ocean State
Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5℃ above average around the island.