Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (26 November 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

 • Heavy rainfall is predicted for Central, Northern, North Central, North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern and  Western provinces from 27th Nov - 1st Dec.

 • Very heavy rainfall was experienced in Sabaragamuwa province with max of 219.0 mm in Ratnapura district on 24th Nov.

 • From 17th Nov - 23rd Nov, up to 40 km/h Northerlies and Northeasterlies were experienced across the island.

 •  Sea surface temperatures were neutral for the entire island.

Download full report ↓

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 25^th November – 1^st  December:  

Total rainfall by Provinces

• >135 mm - Central, Northern, North Central, North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern,  Western
•  135 mm - Eastern
•  125 mm - Uva

From 2^nd – 8^th  December: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• >135 mm - Northern
•  125 mm - North Western, Western
•  115 mm - Sabaragamuwa
•  105 mm - Central, North Central, Southern
•   95 mm - Eastern
•   85 mm - Uva

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be active during 25^th November – 29^th November giving slightly enhanced rainfall. MJO shall be neutral during 30^th November – 4^th December and active during 5^th December – 9^th December giving slightly suppressed rainfall. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: November 17, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were near-to-below average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and were above average in the western Pacific Ocean in the mid-November. A large majority of the model forecasts predict a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months and La Niña to continue through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperatures were neutral for the entire island.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following Provinces: Central and Northern. 

Wind: 

Northerly and Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were above normal by 1⁰C – 3⁰C in some parts of Southern province and near-neutral for the rest of the island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (27^th November – 1^st December) heavy rainfall is predicted for the following provinces: Central, Northern, North Central, North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Western.  

Temperature:

The temperature remains normal during 27^th November – 5^th December for the entire island. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina -The SST forecast indicates that ENSO-neutral are present and a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months.

MJO shall be active during 25th November – 29th November giving slightly enhanced rainfall. MJO shall be neutral during 30th November – 4th December and active during 5th December – 9th December giving slightly suppressed rainfall. 

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the Dec-Feb season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka. 

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (19 November 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

 • Heavy rainfall is predicted for Northern province from 20th Nov - 24th Nov. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Dec to Feb.

 • Heavy rainfall was experienced in Northern and Central provinces with max of 132.5 mm in Mullaitivu district on 11th Nov.

 •  From 10th Nov - 17th Nov, up to 50 km/h Westerlies and Southwesterlies were experienced across the island.

 •  Sea surface temperatures were above 0.50C in the Western seas while neutral to the rest of the island.

Download full report ↓

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 18^th – 24^th  November:  

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 105 mm - Northern
•  85 mm - North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Western
•  75 mm - Central, Southern
•  65 mm - North Central
•  55 mm - Eastern
•  45 mm - Uva

From 25^th – 1^st  November: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• >135 mm - Central, Eastern, Northern, North Central, North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Western
•  135 mm - Southern
•  125 mm - Uva

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be neutral during 18^th November – 22^nd November, MJO shall be active during 23^rd November – 27^th November giving slightly suppressed rainfall and during 28^th November – 2^nd December giving severely suppressed rainfall.   

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: November 10, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were near-to-below average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and were above average in the western Pacific Ocean in the early-November. A large majority of the model forecasts predict a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months and La Niña to continue through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperatures were above 0.5⁰C in the Western seas while neutral around the rest of the island.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following Provinces: Central and Northern. 

Wind: 

Westerly and Southwesterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were below normal by 1⁰C – 3⁰C in some parts of Central, North Central and North Western provinces and near-neutral for the rest of the island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (20^th November – 24^th November) heavy rainfall is predicted for the following province: Northern.   

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly normal during 20^th November – 28^th November for the entire island. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina -The SST forecast indicates that ENSO-neutral are present and a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months.

MJO shall be neutral during 18^th November – 22^nd November, MJO shall be active during 23^rd November – 27^th November giving slightly suppressed rainfall and during 28^th November – 2^nd December giving severely suppressed rainfall. 

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the Dec-Feb season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka. 

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (12 November 2021)

Highlights          

                   

 • Heavy rainfall is predicted for North-Western, Western and Sabaragamuwa provinces from 12th Nov - 16th Nov. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Nov to Jan.

 • Heavy rainfall was experienced in Northern, North Central, North Western, Sabaragamuwa and Western provinces with max of 300.4 mm in Anuradhapura district on 8th Nov.

 •  From 1st Nov - 8th Nov, up to 30 km/h Westerlies to Northwesterlies were experienced across the island.

 •  Sea surface temperatures were above 1.00C in the Northern and Western seas while 0.50C in the  Eastern and Southern seas around the island.

Download full report ↓

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 10^th – 16^th  November:  

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 105 mm - North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Western
•  95 mm - Central, Northern, North Central, Southern
•  75 mm - Uva
•  65 mm - Eastern

From 17^th – 23^rd  November: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 105 mm - North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Western
•  95 mm - Central, Northern, North Central, Southern
•  75 mm - Eastern, Uva

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

During 10^th - 14^th November MJO shall be active giving enhanced rainfall in the North while neutral for the rest of the island. During 15^th – 19^th November MJO shall be active giving slightly suppressed rainfall and from 20^th – 24^th November giving severely suppressed rainfall.    

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: November 3, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were near-to-below average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and were above average in the western Pacific Ocean in early November. A large majority of the model forecasts predict a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months and La Niña to continue through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperatures were above 1.0⁰C in the Northern and Western seas while 0.5⁰C in the Eastern and Southern seas around the island.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the following Provinces: Northern, North Central, North Western, Sabaragamuwa and Western.

Wind: 

Westerly to North Westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were near-neutral for the entire island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (12^th November – 16^th November) heavy rainfall is predicted for the following provinces: North Western, Sabaragamuwa and Western.   

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly normal during 12^th November – 20^th November for the entire island. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina -The SST forecast indicates that ENSO-neutral are present and a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months.

During 10^th November - 14^th November MJO shall be active giving enhanced rainfall in the North while neutral for the rest of the island. During 15^th November – 19^th November MJO shall be active giving slightly suppressed rainfall and from 20^th November – 24^th November giving severely suppressed rainfall.   

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the Nov-Jan season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka. 

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (5 November 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

 • Heavy rainfall is predicted for the entire island from 5th - 10th Nov. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Nov to Jan.

• Heavy rainfall was experienced in Northern, Central, Sabaragamuwa and Western provinces with max of 240.0 mm in Kegalle district on 31st Oct.

 •  From 26th Oct - 2nd Nov, up to 25 km/h Northeasterlies were experienced across the island.

 •  Sea surface temperatures were above 0.50C in the Western and Northern seas while neutral around the rest of the island.

Download full report ↓

---

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 4^th – 10^th  November:  

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 145 mm - Central, Northern, North Central, North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Western
• 135 mm - Eastern, Uva
• 125 mm - Southern

From 11^th – 17^th  November: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 125 mm - Northern
• 115 mm - North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Western
• 105 mm - Central
•  95 mm - North Central, Southern, Uva

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be active during 4^th – 8^th November giving slightly enhanced rainfall, 14^th – 18^th November giving slightly suppressed rainfall and neutral during 9^th – 13^th November.   

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: October 27, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were near-to-below average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and were above average in the western Pacific Ocean in the late-October. A large majority of the model forecasts predict a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months and La Niña to continue through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperatures were above 0.5⁰C in the Western and Northern seas while neutral around the rest of the island. 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following Provinces: Central, Northern, Sabaragamuwa and Western.

Wind: 

North Easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were near-neutral for the entire island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (5^th – 10^th November) heavy rainfall is predicted for the entire island. 

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly normal during 6^th – 13^th November for the entire island. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina -The SST forecast indicates that ENSO-neutral are present and a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months.

MJO shall be active during 4^th – 8^th November giving slightly enhanced rainfall, 14^th – 18^th November giving slightly suppressed rainfall and neutral during 9^th – 13^th November.   

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the Nov-Jan season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.