Climate Bulletin Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (30 April 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  •   Showers of 75 mm expected in Western & Southern during 30th Apr - 4th May and 95 mm expected in Western, Southern, Sabaragamuwa provinces during 5th- 11th May

  •   Thunder shower with lightning was experienced in Sabaragamuwa province with a maximum of 160 mm in Ratnapura on 22ndApr.

•   From 20th - 26th Apr: up to 8 km/h Northeastly winds were experienced by Northern half of the island.

•   Sea surface temperature was observed above average in Northern and neutral around along Sri Lanka.
 

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 150 – 200 mm - Badulla, Moneragala
• 100 – 150 mm - Kegalle, Ratnapura, Colombo, Kalutara
• 75 – 100 mm - Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Gamapaha, Galle, Matara
• 50 – 75 mm - Hambantota
• 25 – 50 mm - Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale
• 10 – 25 mm - Jaffna, Batticaloa

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Excess

• 100 – 200 mm - Badulla, Moneragala
• 50 – 100 mm - Kalutara
• 25 – 50 mm - Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Colombo
• 10 – 25 mm - Gampaha, Matara

Rainfall Deficit

• 25 – 50 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Tricomalee, Ampara, Matale, Hambantota
• 10 – 25 mm - Mannar, Batticaloa

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

1^st – 10^th April:

• 8 mm - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar, Moneragala
• 6 mm - Anuradhapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Matara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Badulla, Ampara
• 4 mm - Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Matale, Kandy, Colombo, Galle, Hambantota
• 2 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Trincomalee, Puttalam, Gampaha

11^th – 20^th April:

• 14 mm - Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Moneragala, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kurunegala, Matara, Hambantota
• 10 mm - Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Galle
• 8 mm - Mannar
• 6 mm - Kilinochchi
• 4 mm - Jaffna

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 30^th April– 4^th May: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 75 mm - Western, Southern
• 65 mm - Central, Sabaragamuwa
• 55 mm - Uva
• 45 mm - Eastern, North Central, North Western
• 35 mm - Northern

From 5^th – 11^th May: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 95 mm - Western, Southern, Sabaragamuwa
• 75 mm - Central, Uva
• 65 mm - North Western
• 55 mm - North Central, Eastern
• 45 mm - Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 30th April – 1st May, slightly enhanced during 2nd–11th May

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: April 21, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the east to the Middle West Pacific Ocean in late April and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring.

Indian Ocean State

Sea surface temperature was observed above average in Northern and neutral around along Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (23 April 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  •  Showers of 55 mm expected in Central, Western,Sabaragamuwa, Uva provinces during 28th Apr- 04th May with a drop in rainfall elsewhere

  •  Thunder shower with lightning was experienced in Sabaragamuwa province with a maximum of 132.5 mm in Kegalle on 14th Apr.

•  From 13th  - 19th Apr: up to 4 km/h Southwestly winds were experienced by Southern half of the island.

•  Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5°C above average in Southern, Eastern and Western parts of around Sri Lanka.
 

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 200 – 300 mm - Polonnaruwa, Matale, Ratnapura
• 150 – 200 mm - Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Batticaloa, Ampara, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Badulla, Moneragala
• 100 – 150 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota
• 75 – 100 mm - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya
• 50 – 75 mm - Kilinochchi, Mannar, Puttalam
• 25 – 50 mm - Jaffna

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Excess

• 100 – 200 mm - Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Badulla, Moneragala
• 50 – 100 mm - Kurunegala, Kegalle, Galle, Matara, Hambantota
• 25 – 50 mm - Jaffna, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara
• 10 – 25 mm - Kilinochchi, Mannar, Puttalam

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

1^st – 10^th April:

• 8 mm - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar, Moneragala
• 6 mm - Anuradhapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Matara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Badulla, Ampara
• 4 mm - Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Matale, Kandy, Colombo, Galle, Hambantota
• 2 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Trincomalee, Puttalam, Gampaha

11^th – 20^th April:

• 14 mm - Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Moneragala, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kurunegala, Matara, Hambantota
• 10 mm - Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Galle
• 8 mm - Mannar
• 6 mm - Kilinochchi
• 4 mm - Jaffna

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 23^rd – 27^th April: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 45 mm - Central, Sabaragamuwa, Western
• 35 mm - Uva
• 25 mm - North Central, Eastern, Southern, North Western
• 15 mm - Northern

From 28^th April – 4^th May: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 55 mm - Central, Western, Sabaragamuwa, Uva
• 45 mm - Southern
• 35 mm - North Central, North Western, Eastern
• 25 mm - Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall significantly suppress the rainfall during 23rd– 24th April, slightly suppressed during 25th–29th April and slightly enhanced during 30th April - 4th May.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: April 14, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the east to the Middle West Pacific Ocean in mid- April and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued LaNiña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring.

Indian Ocean State

Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5°C above average in Southern, Eastern and Western parts of around Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (16 April 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  •  Showers of 75 mm expected in Western & Sabaragamuwa provinces during 16th - 21st April with a drop in rainfall elsewhere.

  •  Dangerously heavy rainfall was experienced in Western, Southern and Sabaragamuwa provinces.Up to 135mm max in Matara on 10th April.  

•  From 6th - 12th Apr: up to 8 km/h Northeasterly winds were experienced by northern half of the island.

•  Sea surface temperature was observed neutral around along Sri Lanka.
 

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 200 – 300 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura
• 150 – 200 mm - Anuradhapura
• 100 – 150 mm - Vavuniya, Mannar, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Moneragala
•  75 – 100 mm - Mullaitivu, Ampara, Kurunegala, Kandy, Matara
•   50 – 75 mm  - Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Puttalam, Matale, Galle, Hambantota
•  25 – 50 mm  - Trincomalee, Kilinochchi
•  10 – 25 mm  - Jaffna

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Excess

• 100 – 200 mm - Anuradhapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura
•  50 – 100 mm - Vavuniya, Mannar, Moneragala, Kegalle
•   25 – 50 mm  - Mullaitivu, Ampara, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Puttalam, Kurunegala
•   10 – 25 mm  - Kilinochchi, Polonnaruwa, Kandy

Rainfall Deficit

•  50 – 100 mm - Galle
•   25 – 50 mm - Batticaloa, Matale, Matara, Hambantota
•   10 – 25 mm - Jaffna, Trincomalee

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

21^st – 31^st March:

• 14 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Kurunegala, Moneragala
• 12 mm - Badulla
• 10 mm - Puttalam, Galle, Matara, Hambantota
• 8 mm - Matale, Ampara
• 6 mm - Batticaloa, Anuradhapura
• 4 mm - Polonnaruwa, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Trincomalee
• 2 mm - Kilinochchi, Jaffna

1^st – 10^th April:

• 8 mm - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar, Moneragala
• 6 mm - Anuradhapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Matara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Badulla, Ampara 
• 4 mm - Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Matale, Kandy, Colombo, Galle, Hambantota
• 2 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Trincomalee, Puttalam, Gampaha   

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 16^th – 20^th April: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 75 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 65 mm - North Western, Southern
• 55 mm - Central, Uva
• 45 mm - Eastern
• 35 mm - Northern, North Central

From 21^st – 27^th April: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 45 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 35 mm - Southern
• 25 mm - North Western, Central, Uva
• 15 mm - Eastern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall significantly suppress the rainfall during 13^th – 17^th Apr, slightly suppress during 18^th– 22^nd Apr and slightly enhance during 23^rd – 27^th Apr.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: April 7, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the east to the Middle West Pacific Ocean in early-April and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring.

Indian Ocean State

Sea surface temperature was observed neutral around along Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (9 April 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

•  Showers of 45 mm expected in Western & Sabaragamuwa provinces during 15th - 21st April with a drop in rainfall elsewhere

  •   Heavy rainfall was experienced in Southern province with a maximum of  74 mm in Galle on 6th Apr.

•  From 30^th Mar - 05^th Apr: up to 6 km/h Northeasterly winds were experienced by northern half of the island.

•    Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5℃ above average to the North of Sri Lanka and neutral to the west.
 

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 50 – 75 mm - Mannar, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya
• 25 – 50 mm - Anuradhapura, Kalutara, Galle
• 10 – 25 mm - Matara, Hambantota, Ratnapura
• 5 – 10 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Moneragala, Badulla
• 2 – 5 mm - Kilinochchi, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle

There was no rainfall throughout the week in the remaining districts.

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Excess

• 25 – 50 mm - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar
• 10 – 25 mm - Anuadhapura

Rainfall Deficit

• 50 – 100 mm - Ratnapura
• 25 – 50 mm - Polonnaruwa, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Badulla, Moneragala, Ampara, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle
• 10 – 25 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Trincomalee, Batticaloa

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

11^th – 20^th March:

• 10 mm - Kalutara
• 8 mm - Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Gampaha, Kegalle, Colombo, Galle
• 6 mm - Nuwara Eliya, Matara, Ampara
• 4 mm - Mannar, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy, Hambantota, Badulla, Moneragala, Batticaloa
• 2 mm - Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Matale

21^st – 31^st March:

• 14 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Kurunegala, Moneragala
• 12 mm - Badulla
• 10 mm - Puttalam, Galle, Matara, Hambantota
• 8 mm - Matale, Ampara
• 6 mm - Batticaloa, Anuradhapura
• 4 mm - Polonnaruwa, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Trincomalee
• 2 mm - Kilinochchi, Jaffna

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 8^th – 14^th April: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 35 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 25 mm - Central
• 15 mm - Northern, North Central, North western, Eastern, Southern, Uva

From 15^th – 21^st April: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 45 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 35 mm - Central, Uva, Southern
• 25 mm - Eastern
• 15 mm - North western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

         MJO shall significantly suppressed the rainfall during 7^th – 16^th Apr and slightly suppressed during 17^th– 21^st Apr.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: March 31, 2021 

          Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the east to the middle west Pacific Ocean in late-March and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring.

Indian Ocean State

        Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5℃ above average to the North of Sri Lanka and neutral to the west.