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Friday, April 16, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (16 April 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  •  Showers of 75 mm expected in Western & Sabaragamuwa provinces during 16th - 21st April with a drop in rainfall elsewhere.
  •  Dangerously heavy rainfall was experienced in Western, Southern and Sabaragamuwa provinces.Up to 135mm max in Matara on 10th April.  
•  From 6th - 12th Apr: up to 8 km/h Northeasterly winds were experienced by northern half of the island.
•  Sea surface temperature was observed neutral around along Sri Lanka.
 





Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:
  • 200 – 300 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura
  • 150 – 200 mm - Anuradhapura
  • 100 – 150 mm - Vavuniya, Mannar, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Moneragala
  •  75 – 100 mm - Mullaitivu, Ampara, Kurunegala, Kandy, Matara
  •   50 – 75 mm  - Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Puttalam, Matale, Galle, Hambantota
  •  25 – 50 mm  - Trincomalee, Kilinochchi
  •  10 – 25 mm  - Jaffna


Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts
Rainfall Excess
  • 100 – 200 mm - Anuradhapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura
  •  50 – 100 mm - Vavuniya, Mannar, Moneragala, Kegalle
  •   25 – 50 mm  - Mullaitivu, Ampara, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Puttalam, Kurunegala
  •   10 – 25 mm  - Kilinochchi, Polonnaruwa, Kandy


Rainfall Deficit
  •  50 – 100 mm - Galle
  •   25 – 50 mm - Batticaloa, Matale, Matara, Hambantota
  •   10 – 25 mm - Jaffna, Trincomalee

Monthly Monitoring
Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:


21st – 31st March:

  • 14 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Kurunegala, Moneragala
  • 12 mm - Badulla
  • 10 mm - Puttalam, Galle, Matara, Hambantota
  • 8 mm - Matale, Ampara
  • 6 mm - Batticaloa, Anuradhapura
  • 4 mm - Polonnaruwa, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Trincomalee
  • 2 mm - Kilinochchi, Jaffna

1st – 10th April:
  • 8 mm - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar, Moneragala
  • 6 mm - Anuradhapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Matara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Badulla, Ampara 
  • 4 mm - Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Matale, Kandy, Colombo, Galle, Hambantota
  • 2 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Trincomalee, Puttalam, Gampaha   

Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 16th – 20th April: 
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • 75 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
  • 65 mm - North Western, Southern
  • 55 mm - Central, Uva
  • 45 mm - Eastern
  • 35 mm - Northern, North Central
From 21st – 27th April: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 45 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
  • 35 mm - Southern
  • 25 mm - North Western, Central, Uva
  • 15 mm - Eastern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall significantly suppress the rainfall during 13th – 17th Apr, slightly suppress during 18th– 22nd Apr and slightly enhance during 23rd – 27th Apr.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: April 7, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the east to the Middle West Pacific Ocean in early-April and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring.

Indian Ocean State
Sea surface temperature was observed neutral around along Sri Lanka.

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